Thread by @ContextFall

This is one of the scariest things I've ever read, and paints a lot of the last four years in an even darker light.

It's a long piece so I'll try to summarize here in a Thread.

cc: @sarahkendzior, @OlgaNYC1211, @AndreaChalupa

propublica.org/article/the-bi…

1/ Russia hopes to seize on the warming temperatures and longer growing seasons brought by climate change to refashion itself as one of the planet’s largest producers of food.

No country may be better positioned to capitalize on climate change than Russia.

2/ Russia has a large land mass and is neighbors with the largest global population fending off climate displacement.

Russia's crop production is expected to be boosted by warming temperatures, even as yields in the United States, Europe and India are all forecast to decrease.

3/ Whether by accident or cunning strategy or, most likely, some combination of the two, the steps Russia's leaders have taken — planting flags in the Arctic and propping up domestic grain production — have positioned Russia to regain its superpower mantle in a warmer world.

4/ By 2100, the national per capita income in the United States might be a third less than it would be in a nonwarming world. India’s would be nearly 92% less; and China’s future growth would be cut short by nearly half.

5/ On the other end, Canada, Scandinavia, Iceland and Russia each could see as much as fivefold bursts in their per capita gross domestic products by the end of the century so long as they have enough people to power their economies at that level.

6/ The issue of national security, for any of these countries, is inextricably interlinked not only with immigration policies but also with food security. The race for prosperity in a climate-changed world is about domestic self-reliance and expanding geopolitical influence.

7/ The scarcer food and other resources become on a global level, the more the ability to produce food domestically becomes a tool of power. And the more nations can keep themselves afloat in this changing world, the more they stand to benefit just by watching others sink.

8/ Russia has been explicit about its intentions as the climate changes; in its national action plan it called on the country to “use the advantages” of warming and listed Arctic shipping and extended growing seasons among things that would benefits the nation.

9/ Russia has always wanted to populate its vast eastern lands, and thawing there puts that goal within reach. This could significantly increase Russia’s prosperity and power, through the opening of tens of millions of acres of land and a flourishing new agricultural economy.

10/ By 2080, Russia’s permafrost in the Asian part of the country will be reduced by more than half. One-third of its land mass would begin to switch from “absolute extreme” in its inhospitality to “fairly favorable” for civilization.

11/ It’s difficult to pinpoint just how much a single degree of warming opens up new land, but research suggests that roughly half of Siberia could become available for farming by 2080, and its capacity to support climate migrants could jump ninefold in some places as a result.

12/ The wait may not be especially long. This season, crops in southern Siberia produced twice the yields as the year before. “It’s exactly what we predicted, except we predicted it by midcentury.”

13/ Additionally, the melting of the Arctic sea ice will open a new shipping lane that would cut transit times from Southeast Asia to Europe by up to 40% and also shorten travel time to the US, positioning Russia to profit by controlling this route between China and the West.

14/ Russia has already shown an increase in agricultural exports.

Since 2015, Russia’s wheat exports jumped 100%, surpassing those of the United States and Europe. Russia is now the largest wheat exporter in the world, responsible for nearly a quarter of the global market.

15/ Intelligence experts warn that some actors may use the effects of climate change as rungs on a ladder toward influence and prosperity.

The US is more likely to lose than win because so many of its leaders have failed to imagine the magnitude of the transformations to come.

16/ America’s strategic challenges from climate change don’t just revolve around food. Sea-level rise, for one, could displace 14 million Americans by 2050, while in Russia fewer than two million people are at risk.

17/ Agriculture presents perhaps the most significant illustration of how a warming world might erode America’s position.

Climate data suggests that crop yields from Texas north to Nebraska could fall by up to 90% by as soon as 2040 as the ideal growing region slips north.

18/ Over the next 80 years, per capita GDP in the US will drop by 36% compared to what it would be in a nonwarming world, even as per capita GDP in Russia will quadruple.

As the livability and capacity of American land wanes, US influence in the world may fade along with it.

19/ Vladimir Putin declared in 2013 that the remaking of Russia’s East “is our national priority for the entire 21st century,” and that “the goals that have to be attained are unprecedented in their scope.”

20/ These days, Chinese companies have begun channeling billions of dollars toward Russian land leases and farm operations, and from there the farms are shipping thousands of tons of soybeans and corn and wheat south to Chinese cities.

21/ For now, at least, these deals seem to be pushing the Chinese and Russian governments closer together. With $14 billion reportedly invested by 2017 across Russia’s resource sectors and another $10 billion pledged by Xi for cross-border infrastructure efforts.

22/ The goals of the two countries are complementary.

Russia gets long-term growth and industry in a region that it has failed to develop in the past. It also gets China’s support for its policies, something that has become invaluable following sanctions imposed by the West.

23/ Ultimately, the US might prove responsible for making Putin’s eastern development a success.

The Trump administration’s trade war with China created the largest catalyst to look for new markets. China’s agricultural imports from Russia increased 61% in 2017 and 2018.

24/ With China’s wealth paired to Russia’s resources, and the climate-related interests of the two countries aligned, there is nothing short of a new world order at stake — an order based on economic alignment and a common commitment to supplanting Western hegemony.