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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
SpaceX levelled up on verticalization.

If TAM is limited, or you want to own a better part of the value chain, buy your suppliers.

"Lockheed already uses Aerojet Rocketdyne’s propulsion systems in its aeronautics, missiles and fire control offerings."reuters.com/article/us-aer…
The market for rocket launches to space isn't that big. Musk has said that the maximum revenue SpaceX can get from launch is $3B. This year SpaceX did 14 commercial launches at $60M each on average. The TAM is best expanded by adjacent enabled markets like communications .
Aerojet Rocketdyne provides the RS-25 engine that will be used to propel a SLS rocket.

The unit economics of SLS seem, well, problematic once Starship is reusable..

If NASA burns ~$2 billion on each SLS and Starship is ~$2 million, that's game over. extremetech.com/extreme/314905…
4/ But software tho...

"NASA’s new SLS rocket would be the most powerful ever. But it’s the software that has some officials worried." washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
21 Dec
"Did Shkreli ask you for advice on his romantic relationship?" is a question I'm seeing a lot tonight in DMs and texts.

Strategy is of little use in affairs of the heart. But as Charlie Munger says, its wise to avoid experiences like bad marriages or racing trains to crossings.
"A realization hit her. In the visitors’ room, “I told Martin I loved him,” Smythe says. “And he told me he loved me, too.” She asked if she could kiss him, and he said yes. The room smelled of chicken wings, she remembers." elle.com/life-love/a350…
It is more likely I would be asked for advice on a topic like this:

"Shkreli mused about running for office or starting a podcast when he got out.“

Starting a podcast is far too hard.

Running for political office only requires clearing a very low hurdle. Weak competitors!
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Dec
Arianespace: "Oh please mom and dad, Elon has his own global broadband LEO satellite network to fill up his SpaceX launch manifest. Can I please have one too?"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Arianespace: "I promise these satellites will use technology based on quantum physics to make them hack-proof as was demonstrated by Chinese researchers."

Mom: "Have you even read the new Morgan Stanley report projecting quantum communications revenues?" news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
Dad: "Everyone knows Morgan Stanley recently revised its SpaceX EV valuation to over $100bn (bull case >$200bn) does not include any direct valuation attribution related to quantum communication networks, quantum metrology or cryptography."

Mom: "That's a lot of terminals!"
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Dec
That 982 megahertz isn't designated for use in Earth-based satellite communications means exactly nothing.

Its nearly certain that intelligent life in Proxima Centauri would have their own frequency allocation systems. They also don't use G designations. scientificamerican.com/article/alien-…
The radio waves emanating from just 4.2 light-years away are concentrated at 982.002 megahertz, which is nice.

To test the source of the waves, Berkeley scientists sent back a message at the same frequency asking if they wanted to make dinner reservations at The French Laundry.
What human-created 982 MHZ sources exist?

"That's also the wavelength (982MHz) of the Intel Stratix 10 FPGA as well as the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2060 6 GB GDDR6 with ROG Boost (Base: 982 MHz) and Fermi DVFS (982 MHz at 0.981V)."

These aliens are planning to sell FPGAs in Q1 2021!
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
19 Dec
1/ Charlie Munger said this week: "What helps everyone is to get in something that's going up and it just carries you along without much talent or work. You've got a big tailwind."

Making that prediction hard: everyone is dealing with complex systems. 25iq.com/2013/07/11/a-d…
2/ Munger also said this week: "Good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression, and not many people have it."

One huge investment people make is in their career path. How do you know when to "bet big" on something that will create that career tailwind?
3/ In the late summer of 1993 I saw a potential career and investing tailwind coming in the form of a commercially valuable Internet.

You may recall in my blog post on Tupac that I quoted Marc Andreessen describing the consensus view in 1994 in this way: 25iq.com/2018/08/18/les…
Read 6 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
18 Dec
1/ The benefits of writing down your ideas is one of the topics I discussed with Patrick OShaughnessy's father in our recent Infinite Loops conversation. I also argued putting your ideas "out there" in public is an act of bravery. investorfieldguide.com/hinkie/

h/t Liberty
2/ "If you can't write it down, you haven't thought it through" Buffett has said. The writing process exposes the missing or broken elements of your ideas. It forces you to think things through. The next step is to put it out in public. That potentially exposes writing to fire.
3/ When you publish your writing, you're basically putting your emotions and your heart out there. You are saying, "This is me." Anyone can attack it. And people, lots of people, do. Any public act of creation, like writing a book or starting a business, is an act of bravery.
Read 6 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
16 Dec
1/ I said in my recent Infinite Loops podcast that I Iove telling stories and this is one:

"You've got to show strength" was Milken's first comment. "How much you looking for?"

"225."

"We'll have to show strength. We'll go for $275," Milken said. archive.seattletimes.com/archive/?date=…
2/ Once when I was part of a team raising money for a startup Michael Milken advised us to focus in raising money from people who recently became wealthy. He said that “old money” is far too attached to it. “Focus on the recently rich" was his advice. 25iq.com/2015/12/26/a-d…
3/ Milken was actually talking to Rufus Lumry.

"Lumry was incredulous. 'How in the world can you get this done when no one else can? When Salomon and PaineWebber can't get this done.'

Milken smiled. 'Your problem is, you went to veterinarians when you wanted brain surgery.'"
Read 4 tweets

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