@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors I know Grant well by I'm a lay person in all this. Here is a thread on this episode. Not all complimentary. The episode itself chastised the sin of "overthinking it all" and that's spot on. All of us have uses gallons of ink and gigas of audio files in analysing since 2008. 1/n
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors 2/n. The overthinking has ignored the famous Munger axiom " show me the incentives and I'll tell you...". What are those? Well every govt from China to GCC manipulates socioeconomic conditions to stave off the mob. Every country has an unwritten social contract to be honoured.
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors 3/n. Why have all the western smart analysts not considered that the free world has that also? Why have they focussed on "fundamentals"? Ps: I'm 100% guilty of this. Our "democracies" are also fighting for their lives to stave off the mob. And honour the promises. Mainly pensions
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors 4/n. Pensions is the kpi of the boomer version of the mob. Jobs, affordable housing, school fees, health insurance, just making ends meet, is the younger version. But its all the same. Coz there isn't any equity in govt coffers. Just debts. Negative balance sheets in old money.
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors 5/n the only thing that keeps a rookie semblance of wellbeing is financial asset prices. Think Japan, Switzerland, the EU. They are all holding biblical levels of assets on the left side of the balance sheet. So too are the banks. So what do we think Charlie's "incentives" are?
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors 6/. THEY AIN'T GOING DOWN. Coz they can't. All this comparison with 1929, CAPE, DOTCOM. All useless! Coz then the markets were NOT "too big to fail". Now they are. The financial markets ARE the economy. And passive flows dictate everything. @profplum99. It's a controlled economy.
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors @profplum99 7) all commentary and all podcasts should just have one theme? Is there anything that can derail this? I personally don't see it. I see more and more Faustian packs with the mobs. "unless you let us do also this then no job, no pension, no state welfare, education, health.".
@ttmygh @fleckcap @AitkenAdvisors @profplum99 8/8 all of us alive have lived basically all our lives under progress on freedom, society, human rights, equality. But most of the civilization TL has been the opposite. Ps: tech now allows 1984 to the nth power. So why do we think it won't happen, and quickly. Merry Christmas 🙏
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