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Tom Bonier Profile picture
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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Georgia Senate Runoff Early Vote Update -
Black voters are turning out in huge numbers. While the overall turnout is at 81% of turnout at this point in the general election, Black turnout is at 86%. AAPI and Latino turnout had been lagging, but is now closing the gap.
Similarly, the youth vote had been lagging badly behind the general election benchmarks, but with the historic levels of early in person voting starting a week ago, the gap is almost entirely closed now (which is remarkable).
Quick update - we were comparing day 15 general election vote totals to day 16 runoff totals. Meaning the runoff early vote is actually a larger share of the general election turnout. Will update these stats shortly.
I've updated this thread with the accurate stats here -

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
17 Dec
Add another to the list! With Michigan vote history in hand, we can now say that voters under the age of 30 expanded their share of the electorate there, over 2016, by 2pts. That's about 180k more younger voters casting a ballot than did in '16.
And another one. Young voters expanded their share of the electorate in Louisiana as well. So far young voters are 8 for 8 in states where we have full vote history and I've run the numbers. More states to come...
Okay, make that 12 for 12. Young voters also expanded their share of the electorate over '16 in AK, NE, NM, and OK. I'm yet to find a state where the youth vote didn't surge by more than overall turnout.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
16 Dec
Early in person turnout in GA has exceeded general election early turnout for each of the first two days. Some of this (8.4% of early in person) is mail voters from the general switching to early in person.
A small share of early in person voters from the first two days of voting didn't vote in the general - 6.352 voters. These "new" voters are modeled at +9.4 Dem, as compared to the overall early voting universe, at +3.8 Dem.
It's difficult to draw conclusions from comparing the runoff early turnout to the general, as we will undoubtedly see people switching vote modes. But we can say that Black voters are accounting for a larger share of the vote now, relative to this same point in the general. Image
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
4 Dec
You've probably read a lot about white voters in the GA suburbs lately. But did you know that the county with the biggest swing towards Dems this year, nationally, was Henry County, GA? Clinton won it by 4 pts, while Biden won it by 20. Some things you should know about Henry...
The first thing you should know about how Henry County, GA became the county with the largest swing to Dems, nationally is that it didn't happen overnight. Stacey Abrams swung it by 12 pts towards Dems in her 2018 gubernatorial bid, carrying it by 16.
Was there a huge surge in white college educated turnout that made Henry County, GA the biggest Dem surge county in the US? No. The white college vote share dropped very slightly, while the overall white vote share dropped by over 9 pts. It was voters of color who surged.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
20 Nov
I should be more clear; NYT published an analysis this week claiming that the '20 Black vote share in GA hit its lowest level since at least '06. They were wrong.
The black vote share actually increased over 2016. The electorate, overall, was the most diverse in the history of GA. It was the white vote share that hit a new low point, yet NYT didn't mention that.
How did they reach this incorrect conclusion? They excluded the roughly 8% of Georgians who didn't identify a race when they registered to vote...
Read 6 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
20 Nov
Some have suggested that the driving force behind the GA suburbs going blue was white voters switching from Trump in '16 to Biden in '20. And yes, that was a factor, but likely not nearly as significant as has been suggested. Some evidence...
Here's a breakdown of the suburban vote in Georgia over the last 3 cycles. Note that Black, Asian, and Latino voters all increased their electorate shares substantially over '16, collectively by 3.7 pts.
Meanwhile, white non-college voters saw their vote share plummet from 2016 by a whole 5 points (that's incredible). White college voters increased slightly as a share of the electorate. Fewer white non-college suburban voters cast a ballot in GA this year than did in '16.
Read 10 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
17 Nov
This is conclusion is based on an analysis of 1/3rd of the counties in one state (NC).
In NV, which has just about complete individual vote history reported, voters under the age of 30 increased as a share of the electorate. Image
In CO, also with complete vote history, youth vote surged significantly over 2016 levels. Image
Read 6 tweets

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