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David Henig Profile picture
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21 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
That permanent feeling in 2020 that the UK government is winging it. That instead of putting the time and effort into, for example, developing a good relationship at all levels with the French, we just hoped we wouldn't need it.
The almost constant inability to think a step ahead, or indeed to right or left. What would happen if you hadn't got a Brexit deal by, say, 21 December? What if the EU didn't just roll over in trade talks? It seems to be a complete shock.
And commenting on the under-performance of the current government is not in any way party political. In fact I hear it more from Conservatives than I do from Labour. Tested by events yes, for sure. But all governments are. This one seems to have lost to them.
Does the PM know that a country doesn't "prosper mightily" just because a PM says his country will "prosper mightily" but actually requires effort?

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
23 Dec
So, deal or no-deal? I'm afraid it looks gloomy. Too many outstanding issues, a political context that is not conducive to compromise, and a tunnel leaking like mad. Quite possibly forming between them a vicious cycle. So, is this it? I suspect not... 1/n
Recall, this UK-EU negotiation is attempting to put in place an agreement unusually extensive (haulage, aviation, security, as well as trade) in a record timescale (9 months start to implementation) at a time of pandemic. That was always optimistic. 2/
A process driven EU against a naive yet overconfident UK in a short timeframe was also never going to be easy. In particular the UK's sole evident negotiating strategy, to say we'll walk away, is still in overdrive, making compromise harder. 3/
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Dec
Think we knew this already. Question is whether there is a next UK offer which is acceptable, and what the package would be around this. That's what will presumably be discussed in the next 24 hours.
Worth recalling - we don't know the detail of what the UK offered on fish, the conditionality, phasing and more. You would think the EU has now set up the opportunity for a final UK offer, but as ever hard to tell. Big 24 hours to come though.
Sure enough. The UK offer was not as generous as reported. No-deal chances just rose again.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Dec
Currently playing... Image
There appear to be oddly few tracks or whole albums with the word 'deal' in them. Recommendations welcome
Thanks for all the suggestions, moved onto this. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Dec
You know the drill by now. This may be significant and a deal on the way.

Or this may not be significant and a deal not on the way.

Take your pick.
Also significant. Or not. A deal. Or a no-deal. Or he wants to wish us all a merry Christmas.
One thing though - be careful about leader level calls helping to unlock a situation. They could be for negotiators to demonstrate that their political instructions are to go no further, or to present politically a new proposal. It could be good news as well. We still wait.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Dec
The classic small town / global trade story that few seem to understand and fewer (none?) have an answer for. What happens when a global multinational shuts the main manufacturing plant in a small town? ft.com/content/c85a6b…
Approximately 70-80% of trade is driven by global supply chains, with large companies in all sectors making key decisions with far reaching consequences. How governments influence such decisions is not entirely clear. But the impacts we see as outbursts of frustration and more. Image
The likelihood is we will see continued closures of manufacturing plants in the UK in years to come, as barriers to EU trade rise and we are too far from potential growth markets in Asia. Our role as specialist services supplier may sustain, but that's not rebalancing.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Dec
Joined up thinking latest. A government determined to make a sovereignty point about fishing no matter the implications (and having refused to trade off fishing for market access elsewhere).
But fishing is what Brexit means innit? Actually every time someone pops up here to tell me what Brexit means it always seems to mean something different. Suppose that's the beauty of a notion of 'control', means lots of things to lots of different people.
Anyway that decision not to extend and to take talks to the wire really worked to take the pressure off the UK... 🤦‍♂️

Fashionable opinion is still that the PM folds. That he sees sense. Might happen. It just hasn't so far.
Read 8 tweets

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