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Bruno Maçães Profile picture
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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Wasn’t Somaliland also part of the Raj?
The partitions (great maps) and the 12 successor states
I guess Sri Lanka should be included in the maps to make it 12 states
As someone said, “India begins in Aden”

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More from @MacaesBruno

Bruno Maçães Profile picture
22 Dec
A bit of history: it was actually the EU that pushed Beijing to have a deal in 2020 as part of its toughening up on China since 2018. One could argue things have changed, but formally it’s a Chinese concession, not the opposite
Remember also that the EU made a wager in 2018 that it could get better results than Trump using its own methods. Many in DG Trade feel it worked and difficult to back away from triumph. In sum: a really critical moment for EU as a global power
.@jakejsullivan tweet raising eyebrows in Brussels: people will insist the EU negotiates its own trade and investment deals...
Read 6 tweets
Bruno Maçães Profile picture
17 Dec
Difficult to see the EU signing an investment treaty with China if Trump has won the election
Yes, the EU has been interested for a long time and China became more committed to the idea over the last two years. But there was still a lot of trepidation in Europe. Biden was reassuring:
1. Allies will no longer be unilaterally punished for their decisions by Washington. 2. Biden will recover the search for an embedded global order including China. The EU is just contributing to that
(...)
Read 6 tweets
Bruno Maçães Profile picture
15 Dec
If there is indeed an investment treaty between China and EU this month, buckle up for all the media stories on how the Belt and Road will take over the world (after having died last week)
Will be a difficult story for the EU to manage - at exact moment when it also wants to revive the transatlantic link
You may ask how the EU could sign a major international agreement with China during a pandemic that started in China. But that is in a way the point: businesses in Europe are drawing the conclusion that if the Chinese economy is thriving during Covid, then it can’t be avoided
Read 5 tweets
Bruno Maçães Profile picture
14 Dec
Final comments on @ft China story: 1. Database seriously underestimates loan books. Loans are not transparent and authors have a stringent requirement which will miss a large loan volume. This is not the way to proceed if you’re interested in China’s international position
2. Policy banks are not the crux of the Belt and Road. Much more important to look at commercial banks and FDI. That FDI is at the core of BRI was explicit from the start and only intensified in recent years
3. Infrastructure is only one pillar of BRI and not the most important one. Initiative is fundamentally about industry and technology. Industrial parks, value chains, acquisitions and trade are critical
Read 4 tweets
Bruno Maçães Profile picture
13 Dec
That Boston University study that was quoted by the @ft last week can only be described as a joke. I just spent one hour looking at annual reports and the numbers don’t add up. They seem completely made up
At first glance there is something odd about the database. Ostensibly it’s about biodiversity and indigenous lands. Why are these metrics being used to measure Chinese financial presence?
This @Diplomat_APAC piece explains the problem or at least one of the problems. thediplomat.com/2020/12/chinas…
Read 6 tweets
Bruno Maçães Profile picture
11 Dec
China pulls back from the world? Pure wishful thinking. I wrote yesterday about how its manufacturing clout has taken quite the boost from Covid
See my notes here
brunomacaes.substack.com/p/the-latest-e…
I also wrote last week on how wishful thinking now drives most China analysis
foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/07/bid…
Read 4 tweets

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