In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD
In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.
In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.
No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.
No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.
No one expected what came after Theresa May’s quite measured leadership launch speech.
No one expected ‘Brexit means Brexit’ to mean anything other than the UK would leave EU membership.
No one expected Boris to be knifed by Gove allowing Theresa May to win.
No one expected Nick Timothy to be a complete moron.
No one expected ‘Citizens of Nowhere’ and ‘Saboteurs’
No one expected certain former EFTA-EEA-Brexit supporters to reveal themselves as out-and-out racists.
No one expected David Davis to be put in charge of Brexit. Nor Boris Johnson to be made foreign secretary.
No one expected Trump to be elected (yes it is relevant)
No one expected Article 50 to be invoked with no plan whatsoever.
No one expected Corbyn to last as Labour leader as long as he did.
No one expected the General Election of 2017.
When the 2017 election was called, no one expected the appalling Tory campaign nor the result (a majority of over 100 looked more likely at the start). No one expected Corbyn to do so well and come within 10,000 votes of winning.
No one expected Chequers – the creation of a Turkey on Europe’s north-west frontier
No one expected the ministerial support for Chequers. Nor the subsequent resignations.
No one expected a second referendum until the shitshow that had played out over 2 years eventually prompted a campaign for one.
No one expected the ERG’s deeper and deeper madness.
No one expected UKIP policies to become government policies.
No one expected the govt's blind rejection of an extension to the transition period.
No one expected David Frost – a Remainer - to be made Chief Negotiator, nor to then turn into as big a Brexit idiot as everyone else in government.
No one expected the indicative votes. No one expected the extraordinary result of the indicative votes.
No one expected MPs who had been calling for a customs union….to vote against a customs union.
No one expected the descent of supposedly sensible Leave figures to lament the radicalisation of their own side but to then join in that radicalisation
No one expected a business-supporting Conservative minister would want to “fuck business”. And the same minister to then be made Conservative leader.
No one expected opposition MPs to permit a general election in 2019.
No one expected No Deal-fearing Michael Gove to reverse ferret on No Deal.
No one expected the red wall to crumble and no one expected the Conservatives to win Blyth Valley.
No one expected liberal, cuddly, single-market-liking Boris Johnson to continue doubling down on the road to Ever Purer Sovereignty
No one expected the biggest pandemic for 100 years.
No one expected Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain to be sacked from Downing Street
No one expected zero change after Cummings had gone.
No one expected the negotiation to go on this long
No one expected in 2016 to see Northern Ireland and Gibraltar put on much faster paths to reunification with their immediate neighbours.
No one expected the British state to deliver a catalogue of lies and wrong turns to the point that we ended up staring down the barrel of No Deal. And a thin deal that wasn’t much better
No one expected the phrase “this is what you voted for” to become an ironic jibe precisely because no one did expect this.
But everyone has been surprised by each grim twist and turn, and yet a few of the same people say I should have predicted all of it. I appreciate the confidence in my prophetic powers but if I was that good, I would’ve ignored this whole thing and enjoyed my £billions instead.
Merry Christmas to all followers and retweeters. I hope 2021 eventually brings us all some peace.
PS: OK I'll give way on the Nick Timothy point.
PPS: Twitter now prompting me with suggested Follows.
I misread Cint....
I misread Cint....
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