1. Lots of conversation about the big shifting geography of US high-tech. @IanHathaway's assessment is here: ianhathaway.org/blog/2020/10/1…
2. As a baseline, let me post some key stats from my report with Ian on global startup cities which uses data from the pre-pandemic period, mid-2010s. startupsusa.org/global-startup…
3. The San Francisco Bay Area is far & away the global leader. Taking San Fran & San Jose (Silicon Valley) together adds up to more than a fifth of all VC backed high tech startups. Next in line is Beijing with 16.6% & of US hubs then NY with 6.6%
4. So the Bay Area would have to decline a lot to lose is its leading status.
5. After the Bay Area with its 20+% of global VC investment in high tech, the next US tech hubs are:
NYC 6.6%
Boston-Cambridge 4.8%
LA 3.4%
San Diego 1.2%
Seattle 1.1%
Chicago 1%
DC 0.9%
Austin 0.7%
Atlanta & Philly 0.6%
Denver & Miami 0.5%
Things tail off pretty quickly ..
NYC 6.6%
Boston-Cambridge 4.8%
LA 3.4%
San Diego 1.2%
Seattle 1.1%
Chicago 1%
DC 0.9%
Austin 0.7%
Atlanta & Philly 0.6%
Denver & Miami 0.5%
Things tail off pretty quickly ..
6. Note the two ascendant new hubs Austin and Miami account for less than 1% of global VC tech investment, in the range of $2.5-3.5 billion each compared to $100 billion for the Bay Area. That is quite a considerable gap.
7. While many seem to be declaring the death of NYC, with $30+billion in annual VC investment it was about TEN TIMES the level of Austin or Miami pre-pandemic. And along with LA had seen more growth in VC investment ...
8. That is not to say, Austin and Miami aren't doing well. They do seem to be having a moment. It is to say they have a ways to go not just to catch the Bay Area, but to catch NY, Boston-Cambridge or LA which had far more VC high-tech investment pre-pandemic.
9. Once we get away from Austin & Miami (which has together around for about 1.5% of global VC investment), it is hard to see evidence for a substantial rise of other US tech hubs relative to the global leaders ...
10. The only others in the top 50 global VC leaders list are: Minneapolis, Dallas, Houston, Provo, the Research Triangle, Baltimore & Salt Lake each with about 0.2-03% of the global total ...
11. To us the really striking thing in our analysis, is the rise of NON-US tech hubs. This is where the striking growth has been. And this is something we should be paying more attention to.
12. Here is a list of large non-US Tech Hubs:
Beijing 14.2%
Shanghai 4.7%
London 3.1%
Hangzhou 2.2%
Bangalore 2.2%
Dehli 1.7%
Berlin 1.4%
Tel Aviv 1%
Singapore & Paris 0.9%
Shenzen 0.8%
All BIGGER than Austin ...
Beijing 14.2%
Shanghai 4.7%
London 3.1%
Hangzhou 2.2%
Bangalore 2.2%
Dehli 1.7%
Berlin 1.4%
Tel Aviv 1%
Singapore & Paris 0.9%
Shenzen 0.8%
All BIGGER than Austin ...
13. Add Tokyo, Toronto, Seoul, Mumbai, Stockholm & Toronto - all bigger than Miami ...
14. Overall the US has seen its share of global VC investment decline from more than 95% in the 1990s to around half by the mid-to-late 2010s
15. And for all the talk of the death of cities one overwhelming finding of our study (again pre-pandemic) is that VC-financed high tech was concentrating more & more in the largest global cities ...
16. Here is a link to our study: startupsusa.org/global-startup…
And here is @IanHathaway's latest:
ianhathaway.org/blog/2020/10/1…
And here is @IanHathaway's latest:
ianhathaway.org/blog/2020/10/1…
17. As we work to update our data (lags & all), I came across this study from @crunchbase on the COVID-19 & the changing landscape for global VC. Not much change at all. In fact, less than I expected ...
about.crunchbase.com/wp-content/upl…
about.crunchbase.com/wp-content/upl…
18. US share of global VC investment remains stable at around half. China saw a significant drop, which is worth watching. And India is next in line.
19. The @crunchbase study does not show metro totals, but it does show US states. And at that level, there is little substantial change ...
20. Leading US states (data for first half of 2020 vs first half of 2019)
California: $35.5 Billion (stable w/ 2019)
New York: $6.7B(down substantially from $10.7B)
Massachusetts: $7B (up from $5.6B)
Texas: $2B (down from $2.2B)
Florida: $700 mil (down from $1.3B)
California: $35.5 Billion (stable w/ 2019)
New York: $6.7B(down substantially from $10.7B)
Massachusetts: $7B (up from $5.6B)
Texas: $2B (down from $2.2B)
Florida: $700 mil (down from $1.3B)
21. What to these interim data say (w/caveat of reporting lags & shifts to come:
Little evidence of erosion of California's position - (need to look closer at Bay Area vs LA but would not expect a big shift there)
NYC seems to have taken a big hit.
Little evidence of erosion of California's position - (need to look closer at Bay Area vs LA but would not expect a big shift there)
NYC seems to have taken a big hit.
22. Little evidence of significant surge in Texas & Florida, if anything a slight decline.
California had about 17 times as much VC investment as Texas in first half of 2020
And rough FIFTY times as much as Florida ...
California had about 17 times as much VC investment as Texas in first half of 2020
And rough FIFTY times as much as Florida ...
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