Thread by @_nickdavies

Late last week, it was announced that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 (VOC 202012/01) was detected and appeared to be spreading rapidly in the south east of England. We analysed the transmissibility and severity of this new variant. [cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…] NOT PEER REVIEWED 1/9

We fitted a mathematical model to the growth of VOC 202012/01 in these three regions of England. If current trends continue, the new variant could represent 90% of cases by mid-January. NOT PEER REVIEWED 2/9

We estimate the transmission rate of this variant is 50–74% higher than existing variants; no clear evidence it leads to higher rates of hospitalisation or death. Although rates of both appear slightly higher in the SE, this could easily be noise in the data. NOT PEER REVIEWED 3/

NB: Our analysis of hospitalisations and deaths is purely associational — we do not have data yet on actual outcomes of patients with this new variant. Further work is needed to clarify this evidence. NOT PEER REVIEWED 4/9

We project the potential impact of the spread of this new variant throughout England and look at possible control policies. Achieving 2 million vaccinations/week could substantially reduce the burden. 200,000 vaccinations/week does not have much impact. NOT PEER REVIEWED 5/9

Without effective control policies, rapid surges are predicted and the burden in the first six months of 2021 may be greater than what was seen in 2020. NOT PEER REVIEWED 6/9

NB: We only explore a few scenarios in this preprint to illustrate what could happen under different potential control strategies. Determining exactly what policies will be most effective will take more work than was possible in the last 5 days. NOT PEER REVIEWED 7/9

Of note, the introduction of a new, rapidly spreading variant (fig B) is able to explain large surges of hospitalisations in the East of England, London, and South East which are otherwise difficult to account for (fig A). NOT PEER REVIEWED 8/9

Thanks to @cmmid_lshtm and all coauthors for a tremendous effort over the past few days in characterising this very concerning threat. The full preprint is here: [cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…]. Coauthors I couldn't tag above @DamienTully @markjit John Edmunds NOT PEER REVIEWED 9/9