As @AndrewSparrow at the @guardian points out, Johnson led Vote Leave and then wrote the following in the Telegraph after the referendum result. Line by line analysis of the key part?: /1 theguardian.com/p/fptqf/stw
"I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be."

Well, he can't change geography, but the centre of gravity in politics and economics in Europe is not in the UK, and the UK is relegated to the periphery with a very limited relationship to the EU. /2
"There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment."

No: no partnership and none will intensify. Env only because EU insistence on LPF? /3
"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU."

No: 'settled status' not the same for EU citizens and Windrush-type scandal expected. /4
"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down."

No: free movement ('proudly') ended. Short visits only, visas for work, massive bureaucracy. Only Brits with a 2nd nationality keep the benefits. /5
"As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

No: Access not same as membership. UK has no say over EU rules that exporters must apply. UK's services economy will suffer. /6
"Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership..."

Maybe: but who will listen? UK-US 'special relationship' also depended on UK being 'bridge' with EU. Ditto, for trade, with Japan. /7
"...giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing."

Maybe: but again, who wants to be 'led'? UK not part of EU foreign policy structures. NATO, 5-eyes remain but unclear who UK will be 'leading'. Commonwealth? No. /8
In short, any deal is probably better than the chaos of #nodeal. But it must be compared to (a) what EU membership meant and (b) what was promised. In light of the above, it will fall well short by any measure. /END

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More from @Cardwell_PJ

15 Dec
I have sent many students on exchange to all these countries, and to about 20 European countries covered by ErasmusPlus. A worthwhile experience for all but the idea of replacing #ErasmusPlus exchanges with Aus/NZ/Canada comes with problems: /1
First, an 'exchange' is reciprocal. So you need approx same numbers of students coming in coming as you do in going out. NZ/Canada/Aus all smaller than UK: so for this to work, all those students interested in an exchange must want to come to the UK over anywhere else. /2
Likely? Not so much. Many will want to go to non-English speaking destinations, including in Europe and Asia. UK often seen as too 'obvious' a choice in my experience. So the UK is going to be limited in scope for partnerships. /3
Read 10 tweets
11 Dec
Short thread need. To be clear - getting agreements, even continuity ones, is good news for the UK and an achievement for those who have worked on them in such a short, pressured period of time.

But to claim, as Steve Baker does, that this is a UK strength is false. /1
First, it hardly needs to be said that a continuity agreement is not the same as a new agreement from scratch. The current EU agreements were negotiated with the UK as a Member State, so the UK's interests were already built in. /2
The proof of this can be seen by comparing agreements (eg. the new Japan-UK and EU-Japan) side by side. The differences are often due to the lack of need of details such as what the equivalent of 'lawyer' is in 24 official EU languages. /3
Read 13 tweets
20 Oct
Amongst the noise about what the UK govt now says are great opportunities in an 'Australian-style deal' (i.e. no deal), bear in mind that the gov't in 2012 already looked at what the costs and benefits of being in the EU were. Anyone remember the Balance of Competences review? /1
The BoC ran 2012-14 and looked at 32 areas of EU activity, inviting evidence from politicians, thinktanks, businesses, academics, NGOs, EU institutions etc on how close EU/UK interests are, and the relative costs and benefits of EU membership. /2 gov.uk/guidance/revie…
It did not consider impact of leaving the EU (not on the cards at the time) but was supposed to answer the question of whether EU membership was worth it. All reports concluded that on balance, the UK gets more than enough out of membership to offset the costs. /3
Read 15 tweets
18 Oct
Since we are discussing academic achievement and Brexit today, time to consider that the loss of #Erasmus and its funding will mean a lack of opportunity for students with limited financial means to gain valuable experience abroad. /1
The UK govt has not committed to seeking to remain in the programme (as non-EU Norway, Turkey etc are) but claim that an alternative will be developed. This will be very challenging and will likely be a complex and underwhelming solution. /2
timeshighereducation.com/blog/plan-stud…
More to the point, it is difficult to see how the UK government will match the funding to individual students that was previously available under Erasmus. The House of Lords EU Committee has outlined the problems with a UK-only approach. /3 publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ld…
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
I'm overwhelmed by the response to my previous thread on Brexit, so thank you to all. As requested, some thoughts on the (mostly legal) way to join/rejoin the EU. This is not an argument that the UK should but an attempt to inform the debate about how it *might* happen. /1
First, Art 50 no longer applies. The UK left on 31.1.2020 and there is no 'reversing' of this process: the UK is now a third country, even though it is still in a transition period until the end of 2020. /2
So, the process of joining follows Article 49 TEU, which looks like this. There is no special procedure for ex-members to rejoin provided for in either Article 49 or Article 50 TEU. /3
Read 24 tweets
13 Oct
A short thread about Brexit and why I am so critical of it: not so much the idea, but the process by which it has happened, which betrays both those who voted remain *and* leave. I do not think Brexit will make the UK better off, but that is not the focus here. /1
The winner-takes-all approach of first past the post has infused Brexit in a way which ignores (a) almost half the electorate (b) Scotland and NI (c) the different shades of what 'leave' means. The present situation bears little resemblance to what was promised in the ref. /2
For a state to *join* the EU takes 10+ years, even if they already have a democratic system, market-based economy and level of integration with the EU. The efforts taken over a long period of time are huge: regular checking, national consultations, parliament scrutiny etc. /3
Read 11 tweets

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