I do think this is relevant to the discussion @perrybaconjr and @whstancil recently had about the divide between older, cautious Democratic leaders and the (relatively) younger generation more open to partisan confrontation bluegrassbeat.substack.com/p/how-cities-m…
.@whstancil cites the brutal 1968-88 period for Dems (presidentially) as shaping this thinking. But for Congress you don't have to go back that far.
Dems lost the House in 1994, couldn't get it back for 12 years. They lost it again 4 years later, couldn't get it back for 8 years
To me the generous interpretation is that Pelosi believes she knows, from hard-won experience, that Democratic majorities are very fragile — and that, if you lose them, it could take a very long time to get them back.
As with many generational conflicts, there's a divide between the older people saying "we've seen this all before, we know how this works" and younger people saying "hey, wake up, things have changed."
But in general the 2020 results vindicated the viewpoint that Dems have a very tough road in Congress, they came surprisingly close to losing the House and will end up with either 50 or 48 Senate seats.
Would more boldness and partisan "fight" have saved these seats for House Democrats? Seems unlikely given that the seats that flipped were mostly in Trump-voting districts.
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The context here was amidst the push for Clinton's health reform plan. Pelosi wanted to push the bill to the left. Instead no agreement could be reached and nothing passed. Democrats lost both houses of Congress in historic wipeout later that year
They hold 3 seats in Trump '16-'20 states (Manchin, Tester, Brown). Rs hold 1 seat that voted D in both years (Collins).
Also, there are 10 seats in Trump '16-Biden '20 states. Ds hold 6, Rs 2, other 2 are TBD in Georgia.
In 2016 Trump won 30 states despite losing the popular vote by 2. That has terrifying Senate implications for Ds (if Rs won both seats in all those states, they'd have 60 seats!).
But 2018 saw wins from Manchin, Tester, Brown, Sinema, Casey, Baldwin, Stabenow in Trump '16 states
Re: the map — presidential results:
2012: D+3.9 popular vote, Ds win 26 states
2016: D+2.1 popular vote, Rs win 30 states
2020: D+4.4 popular vote, Ds win 25 states
Book recommendation thread! Some I read for the first time this year and really enjoyed…
First off, Brenda Wineapple’s THE IMPEACHERS was a fascinating close look at Andrew Johnson's impeachment. Rich with detail and a bona fide page-turner.
THE COWSHED by Ji Xianlin and CHINA UNDER MAO by Andrew Walder. Micro and macro looks at the Cultural Revolution. Get past facile analogies, learn about the reality. (First is a vivid personal tale, second is an academic accounting)
THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF MALCOLM X and Audre Lorde’s ZAMI: A NEW SPELLING OF MY NAME both use autobiography to make deeply compelling critiques of society. They also don’t shy away from the complications real life holds for ideology.
2.) After Tony Bobulinski went public, FBI agents interviewed him right away (rather than waiting till after the election). Naturally, news of the interview immediately went public.
Maybe a defensible call, but at least raises an eyebrow
Overall this at least complicates the "Barr successfully kept it all secret" narrative, even though neither late October story got much play in mainstream outlets
Judge Emmet Sullivan has dismissed the case against Flynn, due to his pardon
Sullivan points out Flynn's pardon is "extraordinarily broad," but says he only needs to consider the part of it that covers the charge Flynn pleaded guilty to
Sullivan wants to emphasize that the pardon does not mean Flynn has been shown to be "innocent"
I'm honestly curious, given the existence of primaries and beliefs among the GOP electorate, about why Kemp, Ducey, Raffensperger, MI/PA/WI legislative leaders *haven’t* gone full MAGA and tried to overturn the results.
Respect for facts and the law? Goodness of their hearts?
What we’ve seen over the past month is that lots of Rs have been willing to *rhetorically* back Trump’s “stolen election” lies and to urge *other* Republicans to do something about it. But almost no R in a position of power to do something has actually done so.
The main exceptions here were the Wayne County canvassers who quickly caved and the one MI state board of canvassers holdout who ultimately didn't matter. But other than that, no one in a position of authority was really willing to push the limits for Trump.