In ~5 years, Elon steps down as Tesla CEO, remains as Chief Product Officer
In ~10 years, leaves Tesla completely to focus on SpaceX and Neuralink. Starts selling his TSLA stock.
This is fairly obvious to me.
However if a holding company is formed, Elon will oversee Tesla, SpaceX (and dozens of other ventures tbd) until the day he dies or loses the cognitive function to run it. Could be another 40 years. Makes a big difference.
Personally, I think @elonmusk is the best investor of capital and innovator at scale in our generation, and that might be an understatement.
This is an opportunity to create a structure that would optimize his time and interests the most.
The key is Elon would need to receive over half the voting rights in the holding company via super-voting shares. This way he can ensure the long-term focus of the company. Otherwise, it's a no-go and I don't think would be in the interest of Elon as it would put SpaceX at risk.
One idea is to give every shareholder that has held TSLA stock for more than 5 years special class of super-voting shares. Their TSLA stock would be converted into special class of stock in holding company with 5:1 voting power per share owned (vs normal class of shares).
This would allow Elon to convert his shares to new class of shares in holding company together with long-term TSLA shareholders, and together they would have majority voting control of the holding company.
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This can be a tremendous advantage for the individual investor who knows how and spends the time to dive deeply into a company.
If you know how to dive deeply into companies + you have the time/motivation to do so + you are super picky with your investments = you've got a true edge in investing.
In investing there's a certain level of competition with other investors because of the scarcity of truly great investments.
The dual (preservation + growth) focus adopted by mainstream investing diverts attention to a large basket of various companies.
My first TSLA stock purchase made in August 2012 is now 100x ($5.94/share to $599.04).
Here's a thread.
At $637/share all my TSLA stock purchases in 2012-2013 will be 100x.
I'm more in humble awe & wonder than I am excited or exuberant. I was never taught the power of a 100x investment, but to have discovered it... it makes me question even more traditional and conventional thinking.
Interesting essay by @paulg about how to be an independent-minded person vs a conventional-thinking person.
He shares some interesting angles but I think he’s missing some key pieces. Here’s a thread of some initial thoughts.
First, independent-minded people have unique values that value/treasure independent thinking and independence over following the crowd. Sometimes those values might be innate and sometimes they might be learned. Or a combo.
One example of the value being learned is when young a person might see gross abuse of conventional thinking or behavior, and concludes they want to avoid that outcome.
In other words, a value for independent-minded needs to be formed somehow.
Some people think Stripe will go public via spac, but I think chances close to zero. Just think about what a spac is for and think about the size of Stripe. This is likely a $100B company. No incentive at all for spac. This company goes public on their own when they want.
The other thing about Stripe is the founders are some of the most long-term founders around. They are obsessively long-term thinkers. This, they are not anxious to go public and put their company under pressure of quarterly performance expectations.
When they go public, they will do so on their own terms. They do not need a spac. Stripe is like the last company that would go public via a spac. Just my opinion and two cents.