Dave Lee Profile picture
27 Nov, 8 tweets, 2 min read
Some people think Stripe will go public via spac, but I think chances close to zero. Just think about what a spac is for and think about the size of Stripe. This is likely a $100B company. No incentive at all for spac. This company goes public on their own when they want.
The other thing about Stripe is the founders are some of the most long-term founders around. They are obsessively long-term thinkers. This, they are not anxious to go public and put their company under pressure of quarterly performance expectations.
When they go public, they will do so on their own terms. They do not need a spac. Stripe is like the last company that would go public via a spac. Just my opinion and two cents.
Btw I have no position in $PSTH
Also if Stripe is going public via $PSTH spac then why are they in talks to raise funds in another round? Doesn’t make any sense.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Also Stripe has the highest demand in the secondary markets of any private company. Stripe can raise $5-10B in a matter of days if they want to. They absolutely DON’T NEED to go public or go public via a spac to raise money.
Further, Stripe founders very unlikely to bow to pressure of early investors wanting to cash out. They are in position of strength. Also, early investors can cash out via secondary markets if they want.
All that said, this is just my personal opinion at this time and purely speculation.

My thoughts can and will change over time with more info.

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More from @heydave7

27 Nov
Interesting essay by @paulg about how to be an independent-minded person vs a conventional-thinking person.

He shares some interesting angles but I think he’s missing some key pieces. Here’s a thread of some initial thoughts.
First, independent-minded people have unique values that value/treasure independent thinking and independence over following the crowd. Sometimes those values might be innate and sometimes they might be learned. Or a combo.
One example of the value being learned is when young a person might see gross abuse of conventional thinking or behavior, and concludes they want to avoid that outcome.

In other words, a value for independent-minded needs to be formed somehow.
Read 10 tweets
14 Nov
First 50 or so invites sent for my beta research team who's first project is to research Starlink more fully. Thanks to all those who reached out.

Here's a thread on what I'm expecting and hoping for...
True/accurate in-depth research is rare, especially in a world where it seems like most are chasing quick gains from the many people pushing stock names.

So much noise and not much signal because people aren't looking deep enough.
So the idea is how can I supercharge in-depth research of companies with decade-winning potential?

I'm limited myself in terms of time, so I've thought of various options. Like even hiring a full-time researcher or two.
Read 8 tweets
12 Nov
The strongest argument for Bitcoin is the demand one IMO.

Increased anxiety over growing govt debt, $ printing, and economic uncertainty leads to increased demand in inflation-protected assets. Further, big money is growing more interest in Bitcoin which drives demand further.
When a Bitcoin bull says they expect Bitcoin to rise due to increased demand over new few years, I'm not going to argue with them. This is the strongest argument they have. In fact, this is why I'm not a Bitcoin bear. As long as demand increases, Bitcoin price can rise.
If I was invested in Bitcoin I would track demand (money in and money out) of Bitcoin religiously and get a pulse of exactly where inflow and outflow is coming from.

The moment when critical mass of core believers are moving out, I'd be out of that trade.
Read 8 tweets
12 Nov
Was just watching video of a bitcoin bull... for every point he makes, I have like 5 questions. But the interviewer just nods in agreement of everything.

One example, "bitcoin is the only deflationary asset".

Here's a thread...
Bitcoin is neither deflationary or inflationary in nature. It’s simply a product/asset that people are ascribing value to at the moment. This can and will change over time. People could ascribe more value to it in the future, or they could ascribe less value in the future.
Just because as a bitcoin bull you think people will ascribe more value to it in the future and the rate of new bitcoin mined is decreasing over time, doesn’t make it “deflationary”. All it means is you think this product will be worth more in the future.
Read 12 tweets
8 Oct
Here’s a thread about my take on the VP debate.
1. Much more substantial topics were discussed than the Presidential debate. Moderator kept it civil and productive.
2. Pence did a better job at speaking to his target audiences:
- non-urban
- blue-colllar
- military
- police
- religious
- gun owners
- wealthy
Read 9 tweets
4 Oct
The most impressive low-risk, high-reward investment gains I've seen are from people with relatively high and secure income (ie., high-paying job, passive income, business, etc) and they invest their vast majority of savings into decade-winners.
Their secure and high income makes it easy to replace money they lose with bad investments and gives them more chances to find the next big decade-winner.
On flip side, I do see some who make amazing gains by taking huge risks with money that they can't easily replace. Sometimes it works out, but most of the times it doesn't.
Read 7 tweets

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