Thread by @lewis_goodall

Some thoughts on the deal and the end of the formal Brexit process

Not the details which are still to come but where it leaves British politics and the economy after 4.5 long, extraordinary and volatile years.

First of all- this is both a more slender achievement than was promised in the referendum and yet a more expansive political achievement than seemed possible a year ago.

To take the politics first, it is a real political achievement for Boris Johnson.

When he became PM, the Brexit riddle seemed unanswerable. No side had legitimacy. His own party in tatters. Through a mix of cunning, at times genuine political skill...

... and a significant election victory he has helped craft a new settlement. That is not to say any of this is for the good. You can disagree with Brexit, its effects or the nature of that settlement but the fact we have travelled a long way since July 2019 is beyond dispute.

Johnson himself clearly sees his own historical role, saying today he has answered a question that has "bedevilled" British politics and UK/EU relations for decades. That the UK was a perpetually unhappy tenant in the club with consequences for both sides.

The question is how enduring that settlement will be- how good an answer he has provided, whether it will unravel. Part of that will depend on the details and whether there is any significant Tory discontent. Prob unlikely- if even Farage is content, most Tories will be too.

Partly as a result of significant purge it seems that Johnson has answered the question (for now) within the Tory Party. Given it (to a greater or lesser extent) contributed to the downfall of four of his most recent predecessors, this is no small thing.

Consensus also seems to be breaking out across the House. Even Starmer, the bulwark of Labour remain, will vote in favour.

So far so good. But this new settlement could still be fragile. Because the questions the Brexit process posed are eternal and unanswerable.

Europe isn't going anywhere. It is likely that governments over the next years and decades will try and recreate some of the institutions we have opted out of. Arguments over our closeness or otherwise will continue. Negotiations over something or other will never be far away.

Without the UK, integration within the EU is likely to intensify. Part of our being involved was to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic power on our doorstep, evolving in ways we did not like. Our influence over that is at an end. But if the EU does become more united....

...the questions about the UK relationship with it become more, not less acute. We've seen how Britain has been the weaker player in the face of a united bloc. If we see this repeatedly into the future, this weakness may itself become a political issue, in whatever form.

Rhetorically, the prospect of rejoining the EU will become something else- a panacea, just as leaving once was- and joining before that. A lever to be pulled by politicians looking for a simple answer, especially times of economic malaise. An answer to any particular question.

And then there's the Union. There will be those who say that outside the EU, Scottish independence becomes a more difficult enterprise. This is undoubtedly true. Destined no longer to share an economic zone and customs area with RUK, economic questions of indy become more acute.

But this is to misunderstand the point. Brexit makes Scottish independence harder but (likely) more probable. Because Scotland has spent 4.5 years of having a very brute demonstration of how little veto power it has within the Union. It is being demonstrated even with this deal.

British political elites have also spent the last 4.5 years telling voters that actually the parameters of politics are much wider than they were told in the decades before.

They can hardly turn to Scots and say that suddenly the parameters of the politics are narrowed again.

Economically, we are about to engage in what is probably the biggest erection of economic barriers in our peacetime history. The Prime Minister was wrong earlier when he said there would no non tariff barriers to trade. 45 years' worth of integration is being unpicked.

Businesses have very little time to prepare for this new deal. Things are going to be different for them and for citizens. Not EU red tape but different red tape and for individuals, prob more of it.

And then there is the question of what we do with our "sovereignty"...

Prime Minister says “it’s one thing to win freedom...but it’s how we use it in the months years to come.” Indeed it is. And that is perhaps the biggest question yet. What are we going to do with it? So many times in recent years we've heard from politicians extolling...

...the virtues and necessity of controlling our own regulation and laws in the abstract, rarely in the particular. We're about to find out whether the last 4.5 years was about little more than de jure sovereignty, about freedom in principle (legitimate) or something more...

...substantial. That can only be up to the Prime Minister and those around him to answer. Remarkably, we don't actually have that much idea of what those changes might be.

Many of those who most wanted Brexit for longest and a deregulatory vision....

And if that's the model we go down, will it threaten the new electoral coalition Boris Johnson has created for his party? Brexit as part of the left right battle is something I wrote about when we actually Brexited...

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1223606234722467840?s=21

But it seems to me that that is the next big question and one which might define politics to come. We can diverge. How much will we?

We were to some extent an uneasy member of the EU- at least under Tory govts which are the norm in Britain. Question is do we remain unstable neighbours? Will the EU be done with our politics us and us done with them? Inevitably, I think probably not.

Now, off for a mince pie.