Does being vaccinated mean you don’t have to wear a mask? Answer: no, mask up, please. B/c vaccine protects you from getting sick if you are exposed to virus, but it doesn’t reliably stop virus from hitching a ride in your nose & jumping to someone else. 1/6
We know the vaccines don’t entirely stop people from getting sick if exposed. They reduce risk by 95% (20-fold). But as people start mingling much more after vaccination, they increase their odds of exposure. 2/6
So think of it this way. Social distancing and masks reduce your risk of being exposed to the virus. And a vaccine reduces your risk of getting sick if you are exposed. But if you stop social distancing, you are way more likely to get exposed. 3/6
And upon exposure, the odds of the virus hitching a ride in nose of even a vaccinated person are high enough (at least 5%, likely >10%) that unvaccinated people should consider a socially active, mask-less, vaccinated person a carrier and therefore keep their distance. 4/6
So once you’re vaccinated, wear a mask for others. Once others are vaccinated, you can go back to normal (maybe skip handshakes- those where never a good idea). 5/6
Widespread covid vaccination will restore things to nearly normal (likely some people will still suffer from Covid), and that means other viruses will make a comeback. Don’t forget to get a flu shot. Happy holidays- next year will likely be better (bar is low). 6/6

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More from @PeterKolchinsky

25 Oct
What would you change US stock market hours to if you could & why? (long on thoughtfulness please, funny is an option, keep puns short)
Here’s another thought. How about introducing newly public companies to market by starting with short trading hours, 3 days a week & then opening up to standard hours after 1-2 years?
What would be ideal public exchange hours from the standpoint of emerging biotech companies (consider their needs) and the funds that provide most of their backing?
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
Once covid vaccines launch, we might trick ourselves into believing they cause everything from colorectal cancer to diabetes to heart disease & lupus. Well-meaning data miners could do real harm. We need to vaccinate ourselves against that. Here’s how. 1/
Consider that many people have avoided going to the doctor for regular checkups during covid. They haven’t gotten preventative care. They haven’t been diagnosed with emergent conditions. They might now have heart disease or cancer and not yet know it. 2/
Here’s a paper showing that cancer diagnoses have gone down during covid. They say “The delay in diagnosis will likely lead to presentation at more advanced stages and poorer clinical outcomes.“ jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… 3/
Read 20 tweets
16 Oct
Delays in FDA approval of a vaccine probably won’t change when most of us get a vaccine. PFE says it might be able to seek approval by end of Nov, so Dec approval possible. But will only have 100M doses ready by YE (50M courses). So unless you have... nytimes.com/2020/10/16/hea…
So unless you have reason to think you would be among the 50M first up to get vaccinated, what will determine when you get vaccinated is the pace of production. & for most of us, our ticket likely won’t be called until 2Q21. So approval delays of 1-2 months won’t change that.
You might even prefer that the vaccines be vetted more carefully. Of course, the people who would be impacted by delays are those slated to get the first doses. Front-line workers, vulnerable. They too might prefer to know the vaccines are safe and effective.
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep
It seems @icer_review’s heart is showing a little in today’s report on essential compassion & fairness of proper insurance w/ low OOP costs for medicines. But they still have a lingering attachment to math that’s been rightly criticized as racist... icer-review.org/wp-content/upl… 1/
...by patient advocate @SuePeschin in this short, incisive piece. morningconsult.com/opinions/cost-… I wonder if it’s a bit uncomfortable for policymakers ICER claims to have influenced w/ its math. After all, #badmathkills 2/
.@icer_review says if medicines for kids w/ sickle cell disease don’t make the cut according to their math (which @SuePeschin has pointed out is deeply flawed), insurance should make those meds unaffordable to them (w/ high OOP costs) as leverage over drug companies. Harsh.
3/
Read 9 tweets
30 Aug
No viruses in this one but it’s still fun. In the spirit of the enemy of my enemy, there was once a time when MALARIA was a dangerous friend worth having in the fight against a deadlier pathogen: SYPHILIS. Like Godzilla vs Mothra, doctors would infect patients dying... Image
...from syphilis w/ malaria to cause them to spike a raging fever. Syphilis is a really nasty bacteria that for millennia was considered incurable, though patients could recover if their had a high enough fever... esp on Saturdays. Image
Malaria was hardly a walk in the park & one might not consider trading malaria for syphilis to be medically ethical, except that there was a drug, quinine, for malaria. So idea was to cure syphilis w/ malaria & cure malaria w/ quinine. Fun fact: quinine glows in black light: Image
Read 8 tweets
28 Aug
With each new drug, patients w/ lung cancer live longer. If first one hadn’t been rewarded, all rest wouldn’t have followed. Only insurance makes all affordable. Eventually they go generic; society saves money & humanity forever enjoys longer life span. Biotech Social Contract! Image
Flagging here for a few thought leaders in or soon to be Washington as they consider how healthcare should work. @Tcardenas @ngoroff @StefFeldman @JoeBiden
Here’s the whole paper, from folks at FDA, who are fortunate to see the totality of the constant effort to push back against the threat of disease that weighs upon us all. ascopubs.org/doi/full/10.12…
Read 4 tweets

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