In my personal spreadsheet (drive.google.com/file/d/11R0xHB…), PH has crossed 19 new cases per 100,000 in the 14-day period from 17.200 last Dec 16, coincidentally the start of Simbang Gabi.
The personally-designed doubling time estimate has declined from 222.88 days-to-double to 210.23 days-to-double. COVID-19 infections are accelerating again.
This is the beginning of a surge, my good reader.
The end of the pandemic is far from sight.
Addendum:
Dec 16 = 222.88 Days-to-Double,
Dec 25 = 210.23 Days-to-Double.
There was a peak of 230.568 days-to-double last Dec. 19, 2020. For clarification
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Pulse Asia's survey methodology is typical of a private survey firm's approach to sampling given limited resources but still able to make some measurable conclusions.
I am not an agent of Pulse Asia, but Pulse Asia has technical notes able to be understood by people exposed to survey sampling methods.
1st, Pulse Asia's domain of concern in studying to have measurable accuracy with sampling is the four geographic areas: NCR, Luzon w/o NCR (termed Balance Luzon), Visayas, and Mindanao, each of the four alloted 300 samples each, thus 1,200 samples.
It is difficult to believe the curve of new confirmed cases per day, because It is highly susceptible to the limitations of @DOHgovph in terms of data management and case validation. Look at the curve of cases by onset of symptoms
1/n
Ignore the point the last portion where the line drops, because again, data delays in validation and testing.
As one can see, the cases have seemingly growing at an increasing rate, bar again the last 9 days or so of the data.
Flattening of the curve entails: 1) a basis on a reference curve of no interventions or the worst scenario, and 2) knowledge of the healthcare capacity
3/n