I wrote a book and an article about this sort of behavior. Terrorist groups typically give warnings when they want to destroy property without causing mass casualties. (2/) cup.columbia.edu/book/force-of-…@ColumbiaUP@caelyncobb
Typically you see casualty-reducing warnings like this from terrorist groups that lack territory and fight democracies. This might give some clues about the identity of the perpetrators... (3/) cambridge.org/core/journals/…@IntOrgJournal
The no-territory/fighting-a-democracy profile applies to US domestic terrorist groups but not to international groups with territorial bases. (Groups with offshore bases care less about whether Americans approve of their tactics, but domestic groups might care.) (4/)
It’s way too early to know. But if I were investigating this I’d look at domestic groups first & give credit claims by domestic groups more credibility. Domestic terrorists have the most reason to warn civilians out of harm’s way, even when destroying property w/ car bombs (5/5)
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The “evacuate now” warning is a common tactic by groups that want to destroy property and project strength to enemies (usually the state) while communicating restraint to potential civilian supporters. (2/)
The warning is a way out of what I call the “multiple audiences conundrum” (wanting to use violence to impress your foes without looking too brutal to civilians whose support you might need). I discuss this at length in my book cup.columbia.edu/book/force-of-… (3/)