Thread by @Joseph_M_Brown

I’m going to keep tweeting about this because I wrote a dissertation, ⁦@ColumbiaUP⁩ book, and ⁦@IntOrgJournal⁩ article on the topic and here it is in the news. (1/) tennessean.com/story/news/cri…

The “evacuate now” warning is a common tactic by groups that want to destroy property and project strength to enemies (usually the state) while communicating restraint to potential civilian supporters. (2/)

The warning is a way out of what I call the “multiple audiences conundrum” (wanting to use violence to impress your foes without looking too brutal to civilians whose support you might need). I discuss this at length in my book cup.columbia.edu/book/force-of-… (3/)

All terrorist groups face a multiple audience conundrum, but it’s especially acute for groups with no territory (who have to hide among civilians) and groups fighting democracies (where civilians have high standards of acceptable humanitarian behavior). (4/)

My @IntOrgJournal article shows all of this quantitatively, based on a 12,000-event database. (5/) cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Which groups warn most often? Think of the IRA, ETA, Weather Underground, Greek anarchists, American anti-Communists (no territory, fighting democracies) but also jihadist groups like Boko Haram, when they suffer territorial losses (6/)

Although the “evacuate now” warning for the #nashvillebombing seems unusual, we’ve seen it from past #terrorist groups that wanted to destroy property and project strength while avoiding casualties that would alienate potentially sympathetic civilians. (7/)

“Whoever did it did give fair warning” (witness quoted by the @Tennessean). The warning reframes civilian perceptions of the perpetrators, making them seem humane, although the bomb is just as destructive materially. tennessean.com/story/news/cri…

I see speculation about whether warning was meant to lure police into the blast. Hard to say yet. “Come-on” tactics are common in Northern Ireland & Spain (IRA & ETA) using truthful warnings or hoaxes as lures. Taliban & AQI/ISIS use hoaxes or double bombings, less often warnings