I’m going to keep tweeting about this because I wrote a dissertation, ⁦@ColumbiaUP⁩ book, and ⁦@IntOrgJournal⁩ article on the topic and here it is in the news. (1/) tennessean.com/story/news/cri…
The “evacuate now” warning is a common tactic by groups that want to destroy property and project strength to enemies (usually the state) while communicating restraint to potential civilian supporters. (2/)
The warning is a way out of what I call the “multiple audiences conundrum” (wanting to use violence to impress your foes without looking too brutal to civilians whose support you might need). I discuss this at length in my book cup.columbia.edu/book/force-of-… (3/)
All terrorist groups face a multiple audience conundrum, but it’s especially acute for groups with no territory (who have to hide among civilians) and groups fighting democracies (where civilians have high standards of acceptable humanitarian behavior). (4/)
My @IntOrgJournal article shows all of this quantitatively, based on a 12,000-event database. (5/) cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Which groups warn most often? Think of the IRA, ETA, Weather Underground, Greek anarchists, American anti-Communists (no territory, fighting democracies) but also jihadist groups like Boko Haram, when they suffer territorial losses (6/)
Although the “evacuate now” warning for the #nashvillebombing seems unusual, we’ve seen it from past #terrorist groups that wanted to destroy property and project strength while avoiding casualties that would alienate potentially sympathetic civilians. (7/)
“Whoever did it did give fair warning” (witness quoted by the @Tennessean). The warning reframes civilian perceptions of the perpetrators, making them seem humane, although the bomb is just as destructive materially. tennessean.com/story/news/cri…
I see speculation about whether warning was meant to lure police into the blast. Hard to say yet. “Come-on” tactics are common in Northern Ireland & Spain (IRA & ETA) using truthful warnings or hoaxes as lures. Taliban & AQI/ISIS use hoaxes or double bombings, less often warnings

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Joseph Brown

Joseph Brown Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Joseph_M_Brown

25 Dec
Nashville bomb was preceded by a warning, which gave instructions to evacuate and a 15 minute countdown. (1/) tennessean.com/story/news/loc… via @Tennessean
I wrote a book and an article about this sort of behavior. Terrorist groups typically give warnings when they want to destroy property without causing mass casualties. (2/) cup.columbia.edu/book/force-of-… @ColumbiaUP @caelyncobb
Typically you see casualty-reducing warnings like this from terrorist groups that lack territory and fight democracies. This might give some clues about the identity of the perpetrators... (3/) cambridge.org/core/journals/… @IntOrgJournal
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!