My Excel sheet based fundamental Analysis of #Kajaria
ZERO trendline/momentum, chart pattern, candle stick mumbo jumbo. Pure fundamentals.
Step 1 : Background checks👇
ZERO trendline/momentum, chart pattern, candle stick mumbo jumbo. Pure fundamentals.
Step 1 : Background checks👇
Step 2 : Sales analysis
Notice how the 'trendline' of sales shows a smooth, steady rise in revenues Y-o-Y, unlike the stock price which is deceptively zigzag, which clouts one's objective judgment.
Notice how the 'trendline' of sales shows a smooth, steady rise in revenues Y-o-Y, unlike the stock price which is deceptively zigzag, which clouts one's objective judgment.
Step 3 : Profit analysis
Notice how, unlike revenues, profit tends to be slightly more volatile, reason being the fluctuating raw material prices.
One can see why there was a breakout in 2014.
Hint : it wasn't because of "green bullish engulfing candle" or any other candle🤦♂️
Notice how, unlike revenues, profit tends to be slightly more volatile, reason being the fluctuating raw material prices.
One can see why there was a breakout in 2014.
Hint : it wasn't because of "green bullish engulfing candle" or any other candle🤦♂️
Step 4 : Risk analysis (cyclical costs)
Crude oil & power affect their margins more than labor costs or technology R&D, as is typical for manufacturing companies.
Kajaria has only 2500 employees running a 10,000cr market cap company.
Crude oil & power affect their margins more than labor costs or technology R&D, as is typical for manufacturing companies.
Kajaria has only 2500 employees running a 10,000cr market cap company.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of the future :
Future EPS discounted at historic growth rate of 14.6%, gives 2030 EPS value as 92rs/share.
Multiply EPS with:
A) Highest historic PE (45) : 4140
B) Lowest historic PE (20) : 1840
C) Median PE (28) i.e Intrinsic price 2663
Future EPS discounted at historic growth rate of 14.6%, gives 2030 EPS value as 92rs/share.
Multiply EPS with:
A) Highest historic PE (45) : 4140
B) Lowest historic PE (20) : 1840
C) Median PE (28) i.e Intrinsic price 2663
Kajaria could trade anywhere between 2k and 4k in 2030, depending on the market sentiment in 2030
Just the PE multiple fluctuates with sentiment, EPS projection remains unaffected.
5X growth i.e 15% CAGR expected from CMP.
10X bagger (25% CAGR) for those who bought near 300.
Just the PE multiple fluctuates with sentiment, EPS projection remains unaffected.
5X growth i.e 15% CAGR expected from CMP.
10X bagger (25% CAGR) for those who bought near 300.
@BoostTrade this is how we fundamentalists follow trends 😇
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