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Rohan Profile picture
Rohan
@techlunatic
Disclosure : 1. Tweets are opinions, not recommendations 2. Puppers are life
Red Redux V Profile picture 1 subscribed
Sep 16, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The leaders rally first & become overvalued FAST. There's great premium for showing urgency to pump a lumpsum amount in such stocks early on in the rally.

The laggards start their journey after all the good stocks have already gone up. << One can do SIP in such slow movers. Image Should we only buy the leaders?

No.

Figure out where we are in the Bull cycle.

Have the leaders..

1. a) taken off in a big way
1. b) or starting to take off

Have the second rung stocks..

2. a) caught up with the leaders
2. b) yet to catch up

Your alpha comes from there
Sep 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A short thread🧵

The US armed forces faced a dilemma during WW2, because returning bomber planes were riddled with bullet holes and they needed better ways to protect them.

The army knew they needed armor to protect their planes but the question was, “Where should they put it?” When they plotted out the damage these planes were incurring, it was spread out, but largely concentrated around the tail, body and wings. So the most natural impulse was to armor the parts with the most bullet holes.

But..
Sep 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Maruti, fundamentals history :

20Y EPS growth CAGR : 12%
10Y growth CAGR: 7%
Current EPS : 140rs /share
Yield at CMP : 2.5%

What is this *Yield? 👍

Explanation in the comments section below 👇 Image
Jul 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
When a stock falls, it opens up deeper arbitrage opportunities during a 'falling knives' scenario. This discount attracts a rapid influx of fresh cash until the arbitrage opportunity gap is filled (i.e the market stabilizes) to the point of 0 alpha. Earnings yields is mostly stable and smooth curve. It's the stock price that fluctuates due to sentiments, liquidity, news cycle, perception etc.

Let's say the long term earnings yield was growing at 9%. If you bought at

(A), your returns = 5%.
(B), your returns = 15%
Jul 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Stock prices respond disproportionately to free float availability (or lack thereof) than to theoretical Excel valuations. The growth rate x float decides the PE multiple, that's why every co. can't be 15PE. A co. with just 10% float will deviate that much from its DCF valuation. If there's 2 similar co.'s, one listed (with 15% float available to investors) vs another co. unlisted. The market will arrive (rightly so) at wildly divergent valuations for both. The second co.'s valuation is based on 100% ownership, while the 1st one on a limited supply basis.
Jul 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The central narrative of my investment narrative has never been and will never be :

a) Catching stocks at the bottom
b) Catching potential multibaggers
c) Being obsessed with the chosen few 'potential multibaggers'
d) Buying 'safe' stocks and avoiding errors at any cost.

👇 a) Never caught these at the bottom :

Jul 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"This stock in my portfolio has reported a dip in earnings yield, what to do?"

The answer depends on the yields of other stocks in the PF. Has this yield dipped from 15% to 12%? are others at 10%? this is still your best performer. ADD!

Are there higher yielding stocks? MIGRATE Keep 30-35 names in the holding, and another ~35 in the watchlist. This is your universe. Don't bother with other names.

Maintain an Excel sheet on all 70 of your candidates to keep track of the yield on each. Keep adding/trimming weights based on relative performance.
Jul 23, 2021 • 100 tweets • 21 min read
A compilation of all my long threads 🧵 :

(One link per comment to keep everything neat.)

Let's begin 👇
Jul 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
#PayTmIPO a cursory glance

Revenue growth rate is mediocre/stagnant.

Let's dig deeper to see if we can find any redeeming qualities. Image #PayTMIPO

Marketing expenses have gone down. All other recurring expenses are constant. Image
Jun 25, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
#SupremeIndustries NPM has jumped drastically in 2021.

From a mere 54 cr in 2008 to 978 cr in 2021, that's a huge leap in profits. For context, the dividend they paid out this year (279 cr) is 6x times their 2008 profit. Image #SupremeInd management has diligently worked to eliminate their debt from 2008 to being completely debt free now. Image
Jun 25, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
There are FOUR inferences :

#1) When stocks fall but fundaments seem fine : Correction has started but people are unaware, and buying.

This is when the market has already commenced its first leg of downmove, but the news still isn't doing halla-gulla about anything bad. #2) Stocks and fundamentals both are bad : Market has bottomed, and people have stopped buying.

This is when the news is doing maximum halla-gulla, people are shit scared and despite good prices, they wont hit the BUY button.
May 15, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Astral Pipes fundamentals : They have 2 major segments, pipes and adhesives. 77% revenue comes from Piping and the rest from Adhesives.
May 15, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Power sector, a bird's eye view thread : 🧵 IEX and PowerGrid appear to be slightly better options (अन्धों में काना राजा) in a capital intensive and dud sector.
May 15, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Atul, Pidilite, Alkyl amine, Fine Org and Aarti Ind have among the best margins in the sector. Pidilite, Atul, Alkyl amines, FinOrg have among the best ROE.
May 14, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Tasty Bites : 50% 🚀 since last mention 5M ago

Fundamentals always precede technical breakouts. Gotta catch em young when the fundamentals are improving & the momentum traders are still clueless.
May 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Life insurance is potentially the sector which will experience this kind of margin expansion over the coming decade. Most insurance companies presently have wafer thin margins between 2% to 4%.

Even a meagre 4% revenue growth at 6% margin will make their EPS zoom up by 300%. Image Presently all Insurance stocks are fully valued (i.e 4% margin priced in but 6% margin not priced in)

Someone who enters now will ride the expansion from 4% margin to 6%. Those who had the foresight to enter at half the rate in 2020 March will get a 6x bagger when EPS goes up 3x
May 13, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If the uptrend has sustained for a greater time (12Mo) whereas the correction is relatively quick and deep (3Mo), as though it is in a hurry to complete a pattern, it is usually the accumulation zone for a fresh impulse wave. Image Whereas, if the correction is taking its own time & allowing (i.e inviting) people to buy, it is usually a distribution prior to multi-year stagnation

Smart money knows deep, swift corrections scare retail investors into selling, while long consolidation attracts value investors Image
Feb 13, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Entering a good investment opportunity is hard enough, having an exit strategy is exponentially harder due to the risk of exiting too soon and losing the potential gains, or not exiting soon enough and facing an erosion of notional gains. Can you eat the cake and have it too? 👇 Once you are favorably positioned in an investment, say you enter at X & 2Yrs later it has grown 3X. Then, without killing the golden goose, just extract your X out of it. Now the engine is running on risk-free capital. This is a mind-hack to prevent you from getting cold feet.
Feb 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Tata Elxsi, a short overview :

Sales trend : Tata Elxsi profit trend :
Feb 4, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
"Internet Software & Services" sector an overview of listed peers. A thread 🧵

TataElxsi has the largest marketcap in the sector, followed by Tanla. Sorted by sales figures, it's clear that the market is rewarding TataElxsi with some premium marketcap, because there are companies which make similar sales but don't enjoy the same valuation (and with good reason) :
Feb 2, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
#Relaxo valuation thread :

Relaxo's history : Relaxo sales history :

2004 : 201 cr
2020 : 2419 cr

15Y Sales growth trend : 17% CAGR