Govt credit has risen at a much faster pace than anytime in recent history. That's why you see such large doses of QE is needed to push demand just a big. While households and corp are deleveraging. This is a massive debasement, positive for Gold Bull Run.
Gold priced in the growth of fiat currencies indocates Gold is cheaper, way cheaper than it should be. Gold prices adjusted for inflation has been higher in previous Bull Runs.
A 16 year DXY cycle began in 2017. This will keep the US Dollar softer or weaker and propell Gold higher.
An upcoming Dollar bounce will allow Gold to be bought at lower levels, presenting opportunity for augmented returns.
Debt markets are representative of ripe conditions for a stable Bull Run for Gold. See image.
Strategy- Buy Gold now and half at prices below $1750. Target $2600 to 2800 /INR 70-75k in next few years.
The irony of 2020 is that you had so much time away from your schedule but no solitude. 🤔
Making goals and achieving them, then moving on to a higher goal may be one of the best ways to live but it's just that. One of the ways. Unplanned, goal-less and impulsive lifestyle may sound destructive but may not be. It is a caricature of the disciplined life.
The best decisions in life are often impulsive, pushed and sometimes forced. Sometimes gut instinct serves us better by training or by luck.
A thread
India Market Strategy – Be Agile, Be Ready
Quick recovery, tapering - High freq indicators are becoming patchy. Recovering is slow. The initial V shape recovery due to pent up demand is over.
India's quick recovery was shallower than peers and is slowing already.
Faltering Growth, A Test for Policy Support - The nascent reflationary cycle led by supply side bottlenecks and a US Dollar depreciation led resurgence in commodity prices is at crossroads. The longer COVID-19 led disruptions continue the more policy support will be required.
In such a scenario the limits to counter cyclical support will be tested, more so for countries other than the US. The US Dollar remains the funding currency and may regain an upper-hand incase of further delay in vaccine rollouts or mobility restrictions.
Reading next:
The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons in Creative Leadership from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company by Robert Iger @AmazonKindle
Reco- @ankitapathak_
In your work, in your life, you’ll be more respected and trusted by the people around you if you honestly own up to your mistakes. It’s impossible not to make them; but it is possible to acknowledge them, learn from them, and set an example that it’s okay to get things wrong.
What’s not okay is to undermine others by lying about something or covering your own ass first.
Amid continued increase in Covid cases and with most activity indicators now losing momentum or stagnating at current low utilization levels after sharp rebounds, a large segment of market is still pinning hopes that rural economy will continue to play the mitigator card.
We reckon there are indeed some green shoots in the rural and agriculture sector, but they come with enough riders:
Reading now: "Firefighting: The Financial Crisis and its…" by Ben S. Bernanke,… amzn.in/brA8jpn
"We know from that long experience that the damage inflicted by financial panics is never limited to the financial sector, even though the strategies for stopping them require support for the financial sector" - from book
🤔What about the damage inflicted by demand collapse ?
Stick on knuckles for high moral grounderers
"The only way to contain the economic damage of a financial fire is to put it out, even though it’s almost impossible to do that without helping some of the people who caused it."
After much thought and going over a number of data points took my 1st short futures trade since Apr2020. Sometime the signals are good enough to break a rule with appropriate SL.
👀
Something you look forward to when you have a position which benefits from it. An engulfing in Nifty weekly.