Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.
Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.
A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.
But it doesn't do much for the country's politcal debate to have such delusions at the heart of the most important economic relationship. And they don't have such delusions in Belfast.
Perhaps it is the way of UK politics that no leader can be seen to be pro-EU, that the UK must be seen to be bigger than the EU, even though the UK is obviously smaller and needs the EU for trade.
On current precedent the UK will continue to lean towards the EU in practice but deny it in principle. All the EU has to do is threaten us with tariffs, and after bluster, here will come the concession.
And obviously you are going to struggle to win a negotiation when your public position is totally at odds with reality, and your actual position. But you can win the media.
Still going to be very hard to rebuild international business confidence in a UK unable to give a straight answer about relations with the EU.
As for a US trade deal, anyone want to trust the Prime Minister's word that UK farmers will be protected? Do you think the US will be impressed if he threatens to walk away?
The fracturing of UK politics into the comic book version of heroes and villains, and the real one of trade-offs and choices. But the first is more fun, and the PM plays it well. The second one is dull by comparison.
The challenges for the future. For the PM, keep politics away from the real world. For Labour, either the opposite, or get better at story telling. For business, identify how to navigate the gap between their real world and Johnson's fictional one.
The high drama phase of Brexit is over. Boris Johnson and the EU won. Many books will now be written about why and how. Now for the dull grind of implementation. There might be different winners and losers. /end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

29 Dec
As a result of Brexit Northern Ireland will follow EU rules for goods, citizens will be eligible to work in the EU, and study and receive healthcare in the EU. Its MPs will vote against the Brexit deal. It now seems on a different trajectory to the rest of the UK. Next steps?
The other part of the UK whose MPs will predominantly reject the Brexit deal? Scotland. Again. Where all eyes on the next six months. Where the election there next year is let's face it an independence election.
Bringing us neatly back to Brexit realities and myths, in which the result for Scottish fishing fleets is a classic example. Betrayed according to representative organisations and the SNP. Opportunity cries the English media. Which will be believed?
Read 6 tweets
28 Dec
Conservatives to back deal that breaches much of what they claimed as sacred red lines. Labour likely to have more rebels even though the deal does as much as they could ever expect to protect labour and environmental standards. None of this looks great.
I'll be honest I don't see a country ready to move on when the governing party won't admit what they've agreed (particularly with regard to Northern Ireland) and many of the opposition party are still in mourning for the referendum / last election.
There's a more optimistic take in which the removal of the EU issue from the front pages allows a gradual return to some sort of reality all round. But more likely a battle between regular claims of wonders not possible in the EU versus surly resentment.
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec
Grateful for the shout out in the thread. Oddly in the end I think Johnson compromised on the sovereignty to safeguard the trade (and particularly Nissan) but clearly did so in a way that read party and public opinion so well. Which I find interesting and under explored.
The person who was sniffing the politics of UK-EU most accurately for a couple of months was @Sime0nStylites, down to the timing of particular UK negotiating moves or 'flounces'. The EU incidentally were unmoved on deal or not, pure focus on their goals.
As to the trade contents of a deal, that was overwhelmingly predicted a few months ago. The only particular Johnson win was on timing. He wanted it all done by December and it is, and there were a lot of doubters. But much will now be added behind the scenes.
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec
Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement... linkedin.com/pulse/signific…
Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs... uktradeforum.net/2020/07/28/the…
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec
Now in article length, my thoughts on winners and losers from the UK-EU trade deal. Both sides achieved their top priorities, just they turned out not to be as claimed in the case of the UK. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
What were UK government priorities in the negotiation? We claimed it was fish and sovereignty, and that without these we would walk away. It turned out these weren't the highest priorities, because of a repeated error of ignoring the internal negotiation.
This is the heart of the content of the deal in terms of winners and losers. In the end the UK prioritised the deal, and zero tariffs, over fish or the absence of level playing field conditions.
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec
I'm still wading through the UK-EU agreement, but in the words of a famed US election watcher, I've seen enough. I'm calling who won...

Actually calling two winners.

The EU. And the Conservative Party.
The EU delivered their top line priorities - protection of the single market through the most stringent level playing field conditions ever seen in a trade deal, protection of the withdrawal agreement, and also of EU fishing fleets. Good result for them.
As for the Conservative Party, they delivered virtually no top line priorities (the ECJ is in there, fishing waters barely reclaimed, Northern Ireland under different rules, lots of LPF) but still declared victory, and seem more united than the Labour Party. Superb result.
Read 5 tweets

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