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Aaron Ginn Profile picture
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27 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
1/ The COVID law fatigue argument for increase spread is fundamentally flawed and weak as it assumes efficacy. Though people are sick of the nosy, rude, hysterical voices, there is very little IRL evidence that these laws are practical or impact the infection curve notably.
2/ We regularly see articles and tweets condemning a lack of adherence to various incongruent and illogical COVID laws. These suffer from ascertainment and sampling bias.

Those that don’t believe the restrictions won’t follow the restrictions.

Shocking, I know.
3/ Polling data and our individual experience shows that adherence was well into the super majority. No rational mind assumes 100% compliance with any policy. Rather these events were reported because of their heterodoxy and a desire to push conventional thinking.
4/ COVID law follows political zealotry not IRL evidence or EPI data. Countries mimic each other and politicians follow roads paved by others. “Evidence” is backed into and voices are cherry picked because the goal is already predetermined. It’s not science but politics 101.
5/ “COVID law fatigue” continues to name, blame, and shame innocent people. Rather is it more probable these COVID restrictions just simply don’t work?

Leaders aren’t honest or brave enough to tell us the truth: it’s not your fault.

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More from @aginnt

Aaron Ginn Profile picture
14 Sep
1/ @YouTube should update their priors and follow recent statements by WHO or they will have to start taking down WHO videos.

Let’s review some of these statements from the @WHO and how similar they are to @SWAtlasHoover

thefederalist.com/2020/09/14/cen…
2/ We can’t stop society and have to learn to adapt. Protect the vulnerable -
3/ Avoid lockdowns at all costs - newstalk.com/news/says-nati…
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Ginn Profile picture
16 Aug
1/ Lockdowns were based on bad mimesis, not evidence.

"Decisions on implementing lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic were based on what neighboring countries were doing at the time, a new study has suggested."
uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavir…
2/ "They found that despite differences in the spread of the virus, countries mimicked each other in a short space of time, with around 80% of OECD nations implementing multiple measures within a two-week period in March."
3/ "'We found that the decisions were not based on, or had a very weak correlation to, standard epidemiological indicators such as infections, deaths, ICU capacity etc. A much stronger determinant was whether many neighboring countries had already implemented measures...'"
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Ginn Profile picture
19 Jul
1/ Interview of @CebmOxford

"By all means people can wear masks but they can’t say it’s an evidence-based decision… there is a real separation between an evidence-based decision and the opaque term that ‘we are being led by the science’, which isn’t the evidence."
2/ "Many people said that we should have locked down earlier, but 50% of care homes developed outbreaks during the lockdown period so there are issues within the transmission of this virus that are not clear… Lockdown is a blunt tool..."
3/ "If you follow the New Zealand policy of suppressing it to zero and locking down the country forever, then you’re going to have a problem… I cannot see a strategy that makes suppression the viable option. The strategy right now should be how we learn to live with this virus."
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Ginn Profile picture
15 Jul
1/ Dr. John Ioannidis interview:

"A country should be locked down not a minute longer than absolutely necessary. We have to keep assessing its risk-benefit calculus, making sure we’re measuring the denominator accurately, and finding vulnerable and not vulnerable sub-groups."
2/ "The corollary of having high-risk groups is that there must be low-risk groups...We can’t treat everyone as 'high risk' because then the high risk won’t get the extra attention and care they deserve."
3/ "in our approach to controlling coronavirus we made no distinction between teenagers partying on beaches in Florida and debilitated, frail residents living in congested nursing homes in NYC. Our uniform approach was neither scientific nor safe."
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Ginn Profile picture
29 Jun
1/ Houston, TX hospital capacity update:

“What you’ve been hearing is a report that we are at 97% or so capacity...Exactly one year ago, it was at 95%. It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s - 90s. That’s how all of us operate hospitals...”
2/ "The capacity that’s being reported is base capacity … we have the ability to go far higher than that in terms of the ICU beds....We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."
3/"People need to come to the hospital or emergency department to receive care and not allow bad things to happen to them because they are somehow inaccurately afraid of coming to the hospitals. That’s a very key message.”
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Ginn Profile picture
29 Jun
Japan's COVID strategy:
1/ "Though many countries around the world have imposed substantial behavioral restrictions — so-called “lockdown” measures — while conducting massive testing and isolation, Japan has managed to control the situation without taking such measures."
2/ "Countermeasures have been taken based on an analysis, which is characterized by a large proportion of asymptomatic cases. Most of these asymptomatic cases do not spread the infection but a small proportion of them (SSEs) infect multiple people, resulting in clusters."
3/ "From the beginning, Japanese testing operations were pragmatic and unique compared to those in other countries....testing capacity be focused on people who had had close contact with COVID-19 patients as well as older persons with underlying conditions."
Read 6 tweets

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