$pdn, $uuuu. Firstly i used to be a huge bull on energy fuels and bought it at $1.6 in 2018 (spring) and sold it in 4/19 at $4. I even told people then it was the height of insanity for people to think (lot of newbies entered uranium then) thinking uranium would be $70 tomorrow
With section 232. Well i enjoyed missing over a 50% collapse in the share px. Seeing uuuu again today at over a $600m mkt cap (including all the newly issued shares over the period ive been out of the stock (+40% increase in share count) vs a $pdn at 350m mkt cap with 4x the
Resources & prodn at 6m when they restart (uuuu will need over 400m$ (i know this from my conversations with mgmt) to get to just 4m prodn capacity & you can tell we’ve again hit insanity with little analysis as new investors chase a stupid 75$M in govt buying which is
Insignificant given that uranium buying by the govt will be split amongst 2-3 players so perhaps best case 1.2m/2 or 600k lbs of U at $50/lb. with a 40$ all in cost base thats 6m in incremental profits on a 600m$ mkt cap.
I’m sure this tweet will create a lot of hate-dont care ive had a great track record trading uuuu, and you’ve got to ask yourself why the gods of uranium dont care for it.
Oh yeah the burn on paladin energy is 1/3 that of UUUU ($10m vs 30$M for uuuu) but oh yeah were in a bull mkt so who cares about #s or facts. LOL
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
$PANR $PTHRF My silence yesterday on arguably disappointing news was so that I could process my own thoughts without the noise from social media. As a contrarian investor I've always mentioned that 1. pls do your own DD and 2. I dont get paid for this- i am just sharing what I am
doing with my own $. The nature of many of my many winning trades is taking ideas where consensus is extremely -ve (kweb march 2022 and Oct 22) or AR when gas looked like it was going to 0 in feb 20 or even recently $rig when some folks called me charlatans &
that it would be filing chapter any day. By the very nature of my investing you are going to get some ideas wrong. _and i have no problem saying im wrong eg $asps which i mentioned i got out at a small loss beg jan 23 if i felt that was the case here with $panr. Many of my big
$BTU. Interesting perspective from someone i definitely respect. My 2 cents and why I respectfully disagree on selling. At a shade above 1x ebitda , with 70% of the market cap at the end of the year in cash there isnt much residual value baked into the stock. @JohnPolomny argues
That coal will be impacted from falling gas prices. I’d argue that has already happened and if you read this months @Go_Rozen section on gas you will see that gas has significant structural reasons for a strong decade and the current abnormal weather and Freeport closure is not
A reason to get overly bearish gas (and as a result coal). Another argument by john is that capital returns is uncertain- id argue the discount you have today IS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY- so why not wait a few months and then benefit as that cloud lifts. And finally John argues
$XLE $XLK As a keen observer of sentiment, I have have to say the continued rally in tech and sell off in energy is befuddling. Its not like i didnt realise that sentiment for tech was extremely weak- pretty close to the lows i did cover a lot of my $TSLA
In addition around $130 i cut all my $snow as well. During late dec and early jan i was questioned why given it seemed dead certain that TSLA was going to $50 or less etc. That being said, I have to admit I probably reentered my shorts way too early- missing the fact that
Nothing like seeing the bulls thump their chests. Meanwhile on a score of other charts it sure looks like a reversal may be at hand. The loud bears have all been silenced and nothing like a rug pull in December to hurt the most folks….
The china opening will be 2 steps forward 1 step backwards. So i found it fascinating that the dumbest investors this past decade- the HF that have managed to underperform for over a decade have underperformed YTD as well. (US L/S down more than S&P ytd despite underperforming up
Markets every year for last 10! Guess QE is an excuse and QT is also an excuse lol. Anyway energy was the largest selling in 5 mos. So if the HF are over reacting to the china covid news and given their track record it makes total sense to listen to @OpenSquareCap and short
$KWEB $INDA $IBN about a month ago i went on a long series of tweets about india vs china. Well although slightly early on china, I doubled down on the Hu cathartic event and china has come screaming back. Meanwhile India has been a massive dog (up just few % whilst many garbage
Us tech names have screamed higher (eg $SNOW etc). So i have top sliced my China posn (u dont go broke taking profits) and covered india- not because i dont think it will underperform but coz some of the US tech shorts are now starting to look more attractive. India did its job
Basically do nothing and preserve your short book and not blow u up with a massive CPI rally. However now its time to increase the beta of the short book as my HF peers- faced with Nov 15 redemption notices and a shitty year are degrossing and providing me an opportune time to