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contrarian 8888 Profile picture
contrarian 8888
@contrarian8888
Former hedge fund manager of a multi billion dollar fund. Interested in commodities & startups. Nothing should be construed as investment advice
21 subscribers
Mar 7, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
$PANR $PTHRF My silence yesterday on arguably disappointing news was so that I could process my own thoughts without the noise from social media. As a contrarian investor I've always mentioned that 1. pls do your own DD and 2. I dont get paid for this- i am just sharing what I am doing with my own $. The nature of many of my many winning trades is taking ideas where consensus is extremely -ve (kweb march 2022 and Oct 22) or AR when gas looked like it was going to 0 in feb 20 or even recently $rig when some folks called me charlatans &
Mar 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$BTU. Interesting perspective from someone i definitely respect. My 2 cents and why I respectfully disagree on selling. At a shade above 1x ebitda , with 70% of the market cap at the end of the year in cash there isnt much residual value baked into the stock. @JohnPolomny argues That coal will be impacted from falling gas prices. I’d argue that has already happened and if you read this months @Go_Rozen section on gas you will see that gas has significant structural reasons for a strong decade and the current abnormal weather and Freeport closure is not
Feb 23, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
$XLE $XLK As a keen observer of sentiment, I have have to say the continued rally in tech and sell off in energy is befuddling. Its not like i didnt realise that sentiment for tech was extremely weak- pretty close to the lows i did cover a lot of my $TSLA short (
Dec 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Nothing like seeing the bulls thump their chests. Meanwhile on a score of other charts it sure looks like a reversal may be at hand. The loud bears have all been silenced and nothing like a rug pull in December to hurt the most folks…. Positioning bullish wise back to Aug levels
Nov 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$XLE $KWEB Great article by @OpenSquareCap open.substack.com/pub/openinsigh… The china opening will be 2 steps forward 1 step backwards. So i found it fascinating that the dumbest investors this past decade- the HF that have managed to underperform for over a decade have underperformed YTD as well. (US L/S down more than S&P ytd despite underperforming up
Nov 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$KWEB $INDA $IBN about a month ago i went on a long series of tweets about india vs china. Well although slightly early on china, I doubled down on the Hu cathartic event and china has come screaming back. Meanwhile India has been a massive dog (up just few % whilst many garbage Us tech names have screamed higher (eg $SNOW etc). So i have top sliced my China posn (u dont go broke taking profits) and covered india- not because i dont think it will underperform but coz some of the US tech shorts are now starting to look more attractive. India did its job
Nov 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some News. I alluded earlier this week that i have noticed a much reduced traction rate. Post that tweet a # of followers mentioned that about a month ago I stopped showing up on their timelines. I suspect some ambitious Twitter engineer, to prove their worth to Elon, decided to Slow down the visibility of those a/cs that were critical of a certain car company. As a result I’ve accepted the kind invitation of @Flight_Useful and will be having my own C8888 channel on Discord where i can post freely & answer Q&A. Heres the link discord.com/invite/VfwXyqs…
Oct 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$KWEB lot of trolls out tonight with knives. Did i get my timing wrong this time-sure but $AR $PDN $BTU even $OXY were not picked at the absolute bottom either. My screaming buy tweet on $AR in feb 2020 mistimed the bottom in covid by a month & more than 50% but even from my Albeit horrendous entry point of $1-$1.5 the stock today is up >20x in 2.5 years. Not suggesting china would ever replicate that but my sense is this Hu event was the final catharsis that investors needed to dump something that just wasn’t working. It was the final shock that
Oct 23, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
#INDIA $IBN $INDA #NIFTYBANK. Wishing all my Indian friends a Happy Diwali. Thought it worth sharing some interesting charts on india. Firstly, for those bullish oil- India is extremely susceptible to oil prices. In addition, India equities relative to bonds are highly Image Inferior today Image
Oct 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#india $INDA $IBN. H/t @PauloMacro for flagging. theemergingmarketsinvestor.com/em-expected-re… Notice The cape for india at 29x vs china at 9x. I know that cape isnt a great timing tool but given sentiment on india is on the moon & China is on the gutter, valns dispersion immense and India potentially having a currency crisis (@TheFactFindr )as i flagged in an earlier
Oct 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$RIG at today’s Grant conference Darren Mauphin from Pilgrim made some points on the offshore sector. 1. This summer a couple of Offshore names asked about contract extensions at the shipyards and the shipyards said we never ever want to work with you guys again- capacity is Going to take a hell of a long time to come back. 2 EV of the sector at peak last time was 164B (2007) today its 19b. Heck SPACEX which does nothing for u (unlike offshore which is servicing a real need like finding oil) has a higher EV than the combined Offshore sector.
Oct 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
$IBN #banknifty #india This is my second part tweet on Indian banks (pls see tweet below if u missed it). We all know who the 2nd richest person in the world is right- Jeff Bezos. NOPE it’s Gautam Adani Who? Yeah exactly his cos trade at an absurd 200-400x earnings and are Highly levered bloomberg.com/opinion/articl….
Oct 18, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$KWEB #china $FXI $IBN. Interesting to see that 90% of chinese A share profit alerts were +VE acc to jpm. In addition we see Fund managers in china investing in their own funds (adding skin to the game at a time when sentiment is extremely -ve).
Oct 15, 2022 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
#india $IBN I've always seeked out opportunities where the consensus is convinced of something and things may change. My questioning nasdaq in Nov 2021 and recommending $Tqqq puts got me a lot of ire with folks saying C8888 stick to something u know about like energy and not tech Needless to say many of my many shorts this year $arkk $tsla $aapl $snow $cvna $nvda etc have been very beneficial to a very strong year with over 1/2 my returns ytd coming from the short side ($btu making up the rest). My piece de resistance was recommending buying $aapl puts
Oct 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$KWEB $BLK. I had a good call during the spring buying Kweb calls. I dumped them a month or 2 later and have not been involved until this am. It’s pretty clear with the leadership council not wearing masks and from tweets ive sent out that Sing tourism agency was told to expect Huge influx of chinese tourists that 0 covid may end post the CCP meetings. Well im already mega long oil (thru $panr and $BTU) but this chart is so juicy and sentiment is in toilet on china.
Oct 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$AAPL seems the bulls arguing or praying for an emergency cut are going to be sorely disappointed. Couple this with the last bastion of safety- $AAPL breaking down and you can have a vicious circle. Julian Brigden yesterday argued for the stock to hit $97.50. Given i had Argued for 90$ when i was buying the puts when the stock was at 175$ that seems highly reasonable. Will be an interesting week. Bottom line a lot of FANG are nothing but bond proxies and with rates rising, and with no growth, people are quickly finding that these”cant lose
Sep 30, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$XLK. $AAPL Everyone is convinced the bearish sentiment is so high that we will get a bounce despite many things breaking and talks that the UK pension systems almost went Kaput. However, the following chart from CS shows That the cost of selling a call to buy an out of the money put remains at extremely cheap levels. If people really were so so so bearish they would be selling calls even to buy deep out of the money puts given they would be convinced we would crash. As you can see downside
Sep 27, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
$PANR $PTHRF One of the original investors of Great Bear (the company that owns the Alaskan assets and merged into $PANR) called me yesterday excitedly post purchasing some $PANR in a very long time. Lets talk some maths they started with. WH Ireland’s base case is 208p pre drilling. Lets say drilling is as expected (my talks w mgmt just this past weekend indicated extremely high confidence there should be no hiccups given we have drilled a 6ft section and got 106bbls flow already. Hence the 150bls/1000ft is very
Sep 25, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
$PANR Great balanced view @Flight_Useful I should point out that the past 72 hours my DMs and WhatsApp have been pinged night and day from all this commotion on $PANR. Despite my track record on many large cap liquid names like $AR, $OXY $PDN $BTU etc etc Ive been called vile Names like fruit loop of an investor. Let me be crystal clear. When i was investigating buying a large position in $PANR at 29p and i did so for a month whilst Farallon was selling in May 21 the advfn chat boards were equally -ve and @Scot126126 was the sole defender. Despite the
Sep 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$XLE #oil $panr. The market is being incredibly myopic worrying about recession fears and thinking oil will collapse even though a # of catalysts ive highlighted repeatedly will soon end. 1. SPR sales go from sales to purchases 2. Rig count in US and Non opec not really rising. 3 oil demand is still resilient despite China being in lockdown. I wont address the first 2 as they are relatively self explanatory (and many smarter folks have posted those charts). I want to address the fact that 0 covid is IMHO nothing more than a ruse for Xi to get re-elected
Sep 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I have never been so excited about an investment before. @KoningCorp in one weekend sold more units than ALL OF 2021. Yes that is right ALL of 2021 in 1 weekend. For those that invested in @joinrepublic congrats- I believe the co is raising money at a higher valn through startengine.com/Koning So why the huge increase in sales? (A) new Koning Vera machine is a game changer -3D no breast compression and new selling model- (B) units are now sold as a scan as a service allowing much more access to breast clinics and centers and paying for each