kain.eth Profile picture
28 Dec, 13 tweets, 4 min read
Here’s my list:

1. L2 migrations and attempts to consolidate around a solution will take up most of the year, fragmentation and forks will ensue across different scaling solutions. Basically what a lot of VC’s imagined in 2016/17 but their L1 bags will still end up worthless.
2. 1559 will be a game changer for the Ethereum community. The wealth effect will dwarf that of Bitcoin and since many ETH holders are builders we will see a mass proliferation of new projects as these gains are reinvested in the ecosystem.
3. UX will improve massively, we have the components but they are just now being stitched together. @austingriffith will keep being a mega-chad single handedly pushing us forward.
4. Risk solutions will start to attract more institutional capital to defi for good and ill. Right now it’s a crazy little petri dish of experiments, it will get more serious and more boring in some ways.
5. The options space is going to get much more sophisticated and liquid and it’s going to be a major threat to CeFi platforms by the end of the year.
6. Same thing for futures. L2 plus all the other defi advantages will blow away the cefi competition once large market makers become comfortable playing in the space.
7. Tokens will continue to provide hyper-growth fuel for bootstrapping networks, and experimentation with distribution, value capture and governance will accelerate.
8. @AndreCronjeTech will launch 58 new projects. And will eventually be revealed as a shapeshifting lizard person from Rylon 5, a race of super intelligent Caiman like people seeking to bring enlightenment to lesser planets.
9. We will have a 150m+ dollar defi hack and the industry will survive.
10. Regulators will still be trying to work out wtf to do about all this, meanwhile good actors will continue to abide by solid ethical principles building and offering fair, transparent and open access to financial services for anyone in the world.
11. @DegenSpartan will become less cynical as he hits billionaire status and decide to dedicate himself to bringing good cheer, high yields and hentai to all the impoverished children of the world.
12. Me, @rleshner, @StaniKulechov, @haydenzadams, @fcmartinelli, @koeppelmann, @StefanDGeorge, @newmichwill will create “the society of former semi-benevolent dictators”. Each member gets a chance to be the dictator to assuage our desperate need for power.
That’s my list, though I haven’t had a coffee yet this morning so maybe I’ll think of some more dumb stuff later. Also I’m savings the best for my @synthetix 2020 wrap up.

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More from @kaiynne

25 Oct
Been ruminating on this for a while, but few events really drilled it home recently. I’ve been lucky to have had input into the design process with some early stage projects lately. It’s one of my favourite things. But it has also reinforced why crypto is hard.
We are so early that the solution space is still massively unexplored. It feels a little like after the App Store launched and all of the sudden startups had access to this incredible platform on which to build. Ethereum is like that but amplified 100x.
You can do anything, and that is both incredible and petrifying. Because the freedom comes at a cost, it is really easy to drive off a cliff without even realising it. So many people try to optimise for certainty in planning.
Read 14 tweets
19 Oct
Do you like weird origin stories? You do? Good here is great one.
Early August I get an unsolicited email from a purported SNX holder. This happens pretty regularly, no idea how they get my email, probably @garthtravers’s fault…
So I was thinking it was a pitch, which it kind of was, but with a twist, it was pitching Synthetix to take an idea for tranching risk in the debt pool. I had actually been thinking a lot about risk swaps at the time. Probably withdrawals from @matt_levine being MIA.
Thus the concept was super interesting to me and I was confident it could be taken and rolled out in a generalised fashion for a bunch of projects, my response “I have negative infinity bandwidth right now lol, but if someone pitched me this idea I would 100% fund it…”
Read 14 tweets
18 Oct
Hearing about some messages saying essentially “oh noes, Kain is not in control of Synthetix anymore. Panic. Flee.” I guess if you are in the project for this long and you still don’t get it you probably should flee. But in case you are just a little dense I will spell it out.
The new governance structure gives you all of the good stuff with none of the bad stuff. With minimal command and control overhead every core contributor has the autonomy to go out and execute.
Not only that but it’s self organising and self correcting. We just removed a core contributor on Friday based on feedback from others in the project. I say we but I actually had no idea it was happening until it did. It’s bleeding edge but it’s working.
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
Here comes a long and meandering thread about markets, competition and social norms, with some personal history thrown in. I’ve been thinking about what precipitated my interaction with @sgoldfed yesterday a lot and I have some thoughts.
I think the first thing to clarify is that my “nothing is even close” comment was aimed directly at competing L1 chains, for ETH scaling we’ve picked the OVM and I’m confident they deliver but if you are building something on Ethereum we are cool. I support you and wish you well.
Second, I love the Ethereum community and the whole flowers, rainbows and unicorns vibe. I think we should all aspire to be more collaborative at a deep level. But I also believe in markets and I think people in the ETH community are privileged to be able to ignore them.
Read 22 tweets
28 Sep
I’ve had a few pings about the @kucoincom hack over the weekend, just to save my DMs from turning into even more of a dumpster fire than usual, here are my thoughts. They are my own, and do not represent the collective views of the @synthetix_io community, because obviously lol.
So we heard there were anomalies within a few minutes of the news from a number of people who track on-chain movements closely. It seemed ~500k of the ~1.5m SNX on kucoin was in a suspected hacker address already. Kucoin said they would be making an announcement shortly.
When I heard Kucoin was planning to cover the ~150m loss from insurance I was a little skeptical. I have some experience insuring tail risk from working with a client of @Blueshyft a few years ago. There are not many people out there who will write cover this large and weird.
Read 15 tweets
29 Aug
Really interesting dynamic here with @SBF_Alameda going full degen yield farming. Just eyeballing the account it seems like at one point between 20-30% of the entire AUM of Sushi was coming from an account associated with @FTX_Official . Which kind of begs the question…
Where does this risk ultimately sit on this trade? Several people in the @synthetix_io community have reviewed the code but we didn’t audit it and the complexity of the contracts was such that we felt there was reasonable SC risk here.
We have seen several examples of LP rewards contracts that had the potential to be bricked accidentally or intentionally by a deployer. When you send your LP tokens to these contracts you lose control of your funds, the Uni LP wrapper does nothing to protect you!
Read 8 tweets

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