@realDonaldTrump Here are the official stats for Pennsylvania for 2020 Presidential Election:
Number of total votes (Trump+Biden+Jorgen): 6,915,283
Number of Registered Voters: 9,050,870
Number of people 18 years and over: 9,358,833
@realDonaldTrump Okay, it's fair to say that President Trump is comparing "number of people who voted" to number of final votes counted. His supporters will jump on that thin reed to justify his claim. But where did he get the number for the actual number of people who voted? I figured it out. 1/
@realDonaldTrump He picked up the figure for number of votes counted as of the evening of 11/3/2020, i.e. election day, and called it "number of people who voted." That's the number mentioned in this memo. 2/
@realDonaldTrump This is his way of saying all the mail-in votes counted after election day should be thrown out, which is clearly not correct, but he has been making the statement repeatedly that he won on election day. Of course he won on election day if we stopped counting on election day. 3/
@realDonaldTrump But we never stop counting on election day. The only votes that are illegal are the ones cast/received after the election day. All mail-in ballots received up to and including the election day are always counted, and they are counted after the election day. 4/
@realDonaldTrump It's just that in most elections the mail-in votes, legally cast on or before the election day but counted after the election day, don't change the election result. That was not the case in this election. But that by itself is not wrong. 5/
@realDonaldTrump What would be wrong is if any illegal votes were counted as legit, regardless of when they were counted. An illegal vote is an illegal vote even if counted before election day. And a legal vote is a legal vote if cast/received correctly but counted after the election day. 6/6
On the second page of the letter, it says that this analysis "calls into question the accuracy of the SURE system." So the letter itself questions the accuracy of the 6,760,230 number (i.e. number of voters) that is the basis of this brouhaha.
@realDonaldTrump P.P.S. Please know that the SURE data used for "Number of voters" in the above mentioned memo is out of date, as clearly noted by Pennsylvania's official SURE website. So of course if you compare the latest certified vote count with outdated and lower SURE count, you get a mess.
@realDonaldTrump P.P.S. Please know that the SURE data used for "Number of voters" in the above mentioned memo is out of date, as clearly noted by Pennsylvania's official SURE website. So of course if you compare the latest certified vote count with outdated and lower SURE count, you get a mess.
@realDonaldTrump P.P.P.S.
I took so much trouble to debunk a Trump claim of election fraud, even as I believe he deserves to win a second term, based on his first term accomplishments for America. Then why did I do this? Because I said this a month ago, and I mean it.
Please see the above tweet for official stats from Pennsylvania Department of State. The registration roll seems awfully close to number of people 18 years and over.
2. I suspect it is because dead voters and those who moved out of state, etc. have not been purged from the registration database. The number of legal and registered voters is probably closer to 8.5 million. Be that is it may, Trump's tweet is highly misleading in its bold claim.
1. On Covid Testing: What We Have, And What We Need
This is a thread on a few basic scientific concepts, but they can be very, very confusing. Bookmark this thread so you can use it for reference, again and again.
2. First, be aware that there is no such thing as 100% certainty in testing, but for the sake of simplicity I will use the terms 'always' and 'never' in the following tweets not in a literal sense but in the sense of close to 100% (but not actually 100%).
3. Now three crucial terms: Sensitivity, Specificity, Frequency.
Sensitive: A test is sensitive if it never gives a false negative.
Specific: A test is specific if it never gives a false positive.
Frequency: How often you can easily and inexpensively be tested.
The only statistic that can be reliably used to track the trajectory of Covid infections & severity, in my opinion, is "number of new hospitalizations for Covid (i.e. with severe Covid symptoms at the point of admission)." Don't know if "hospitalization" statistics reflect that.
The reason I say that is because people don't fake severe Covid symptoms to get admitted to a hospital. Hospitalizations are real.
But we run into the same difficulty with "hospitalizations" statistic as with "number of Covid deaths" statistic.
Does the "Covid hospitalizations" statistic reflect "admitted because of severe Covid symptoms" or "admitted for any reason, but later diagnosed with Covid?"
1. On AG Bill Barr
Since I am hearing a lot of people saying AG Barr didn't do a good job because no significant convictions for Crossfire Hurricane so far, I thought I should mention it takes a long time to make an airtight case for convicting anyone accused of political crimes.
2. And by the way, John Durham may soon be bringing new information to a grand jury.
(a) President Trump has been wronged by our election processes and what he has had to endure at the hands of deceitful media and disgraceful Democratic apparatchiks.
(b) President Trump still must not be cut any slack for violating Rule of Law.
Unfettered power is never ever an appropriate recompense for grievous wrong.
Breaching "Rule of Law" (which only those in power can do) is not the same as breaking a law (which anyone can do). President Trump has broken no laws. But I consider it a breach of "Rule of Law" when he threatens any American who is not convicted of a crime with imprisonment.
1. Trump Was Outmaneuvered By Democrats in Broad Daylight
Trump didn't lose the election on election day. On election day voting, he won big. But he had lost the election before the first vote was cast on election day.
Trump's strategic mistake was astounding.
2. Was there voter fraud? Of course there was, because there always is, but almost all of it happened before election day -- ballot stuffing, registering illegal voters, mailing ballots for dead voters, etc. -- the usual staple, nothing new, but probably on a larger scale.
3. But I don't think fraud alone, or even predominantly, cost Trump the election. Trump got so many more votes on election day that even fraud could not have cost him the election. It was something else. It was a strategic mistake that did the trick.