1. If you invested 1 ₹ in the 1st box and allowed it to compound let’s say in a simple bank account, by the time it’s in the 8th box you would have made 128 x your original 1₹ now apply this to sensex or Berkshire Hathaway.
2. The time it takes to reach the boxes depends on the time taken to compound. If you put that 1₹ in bank account it takes 8-10 years to move to second box, but the same will take just 3 years if invested in Berkshire and around 6 years if if you invested in sensex.
3. Compounding applies to everything in life, I had 5 good friends in school and as we grew up those 5 knew 5 more and they knew 5 more and over a period of time there’s this big group of people I came to know just by the first 5 persons. So compounding happens in everyday life.
4. There’s this negative compounding like debt, bad relationships, bad habits etc which once not identified and stopped keeps compounding negatively. So the first thing to do is stop negative compounding and look for positive compounders.
5. The biggest mystery in compounding is the maximum part of the gains comes at the last compounding period ex : Assume you’re compounding at 15 % CAGR, which means every 5 years your money moves to second box or doubles. If you have 15 years to do this than in the first
Compounding period
1 = 2 in 5 years
2 = 4 in 10th year
4= 8 in 15 th year
Now from the above 50 % of your gains have come in the 15th year and if you would’ve stopped it in 10th year you would have lost 50 % of your net-worth. So the trick is time and patience.
6.I owned a piece of land bought in 2012 and now sold it at 3 x gains realizing a gain of 15 % CAGR. So compounding happens in all sorts of monetary investments like gold, land, equity and also intangibles like human relationships and karma
7. Time is the friend of a good business and the enemy of a bad one - Warren Buffett
This is so true, to realize your compounding effect always focus on good businesses which keeps growing, investing in bad compounders will jeopardize the compounding effect and kill returns.
8. The right kind of knowledge compounds ex : Before investing I got thorough understanding of the basics which gave a strong foundation. Know the basics very well will compounds over time.
Munger says -More basic knowledge you have less new knowledge you require
Happy compounding and wish you all a happy and a prosperous new year
We’ve heard of moats which is metaphorically a term used by warren Buffett. So what’s a moat in business sense ?
Put simply moats are competitive advantage that keep competitors at bay from encroaching a companies territory.
What are the sources of competitive advantage ? Old age companies like standard oil and reliance had a scale advantage, where they were able to produce at scale which in turn helped them reduce costs and get a good price from their suppliers.
Do scale advantages still persist ?
1. Scale advantages is the first source of MOAT. If a company can scale its production or service it has a huge advantage over its peers
Ex : Take Netflix, the scale advantage comes from its leverage used via internet which is absent in other forms. With scaling its had an edge
Received requests on quant strategy tweeted earlier here’s a basic process I’ve modeled in the intrinsic value sheet, which removes emotions completely from decisions
Where each company is categorized based on its parameters and given range of value. I’ve hidden others companies
Once the ranges are in green we start to buy without second thoughts until I feel comfortable and as long as it’s available within that range. It’s a very disciplined process.
We keep updating the sheets as new information flows in and keep revising our estimates every 6 months
The idea is to be non- emotional and take decisions based on data.
Most of the companies have been in the green zone in March 2020 and not navigated to yellow or Red now. So that’s a time we start building cash.
This mod helps me to think through my own valuations and process
I have been receiving requests to write about When to sell a stock/ investment ? #Whentosell
I’m writing this thread based on when I sell and logic behind the selling an investment
1. I sell when my investment thesis is wrong or the investment is playing out for wrong reasons
I invested in a few pharma companies with a hypothesis that #USFDA issues,pricing issues will be sorted and growth return to normal, but currently pharma has given me > 100 % returns for wrong reasons which I did not hypothesise #Covid19
2. I sell when my research or my analysis is wrong
In 2016 I invested in #Tarajewels based on #Graham net net, I was on a 30% profit, when i reanalyzed I found I missed to take into account #contingentliabilities and sold the position.