UK variant update:
50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.
No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.
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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.
No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.
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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% higher infection rate
(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)
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(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)
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Main effect in children under 9 years old
(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)
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(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)
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Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.
Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant
With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher
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theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher
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theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1)Accelerate vaccinations
2)Control: a) Advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel, managed isolation on arrival b) Schools should remain closed until buildings are made as safe as possible for pupils and staff
c)Universities online
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2)Control: a) Advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel, managed isolation on arrival b) Schools should remain closed until buildings are made as safe as possible for pupils and staff
c)Universities online
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3) test,trace,isolate: a)Test, b)Trace contacts as quickly as possible, isolate before they can infect others. Include forward tracing (identifying who you might have infected) and backwards tracing (who infected you), c)Practical support to isolate
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4) Provide guidance for workplace safety.
5) Provide financial support for the public.
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5) Provide financial support for the public.
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Compare
👉higher fatality, with
👉increase in transmissibility ON fatality.
Example:
50% higher fatality increases deaths from 129 to 193.
50% higher transmissibility increases from 129 to 978 after one month, more if longer
See:
👉higher fatality, with
👉increase in transmissibility ON fatality.
Example:
50% higher fatality increases deaths from 129 to 193.
50% higher transmissibility increases from 129 to 978 after one month, more if longer
See:
https://twitter.com/jlz0z/status/1343935616979877888?s=20
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