Daniel Profile picture
29 Dec, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Some $trit thoughts:
1) def some red flags here however at this valuation vs the 65% rev growth rate and solid profitability i think its already more than reflected in the price of the stock here. Without these red flags i dont see why this stock wouldnt be 2-3x this price now
2) Lot of ppl looking at the connection between the founder of $trit and the company that has the financial issues ehich he also controls however did anyone listen to the update call? Company explained many customers in space affected by covid & asking for longer payment terms
3) Everyone understands & grants these terms (including lenders) except this one time for this customer the lender associated with the transaction didnt agree which is y rhodium has the issue. Company said the transaction in question was NOT even done through $trit’s platform!
4) given the ENTIRE value prop of blockchain tech is transparency and combating fraud given the digital ledger making it impossible to commit fraud i cant imagine it would be tough to confirm if this trading volume and revs and customers exist.
5) we are all drawing connections/conclusions based on speculation & no inside info. $trit auditor listed as kpmg & i checked the address & confirmed its auditors real address. Also someone from singapore checked and confirmed this and that company operates where it says it does
6) Someone else commented that they dont see job postings of engineers on their website, however another user from Singapore said they dont post jobs on websites there and instead use direct headhunters and another site whjch showed three job openings for engineers this yr
7) previous president was only there for 7 months which was listed as proof that $trit is a fraud. In response to me yday someone posted that they’re a trader & see enormous upside of Kraros & the former President liked thecomment! See pic of tom towbridge liking below
8) @thetomtrow can you make any comment on $trit and kratos being legitimate with real customers and revs while you were there and that ur departure did not have thing to do with it being a fraud? Did you leave for your own reasons unrelated to $trit? Thanks
9) i admit theres some red flags but with related party rev falling from 26% earlier in the yr down to 10% last w even if there was some funny biz early on as platform grows and onboards more unrelated parties unto the platform that risk decreases significantly & fixes itself imo
Could this be a complete fraud? Who knows but again with kpmg and the fact that blockchain is supposed to solve fraud i would think it would be easy to confirm so risk/reward is much more skewed to upside. If company executes and grows and related revs fall this can 3-5x quick

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More from @DPogrebinsky

30 Dec
Just spent an hour on the phone with $trit IR:
1) company has 56 employees of which 6 are engineers related to the platform who are managed by Ashish. The key is in addition they outsource to India additional 50-80 tech contractors at any given time who they used to launch Kratos
2) srinivas is a controlling investor in Rhodium but company has full time CEO and CFO and he doesnt control and is not privy to the day to day operations of the company. $trit started through him seeing a need for a better way to trade more effectively through Rhodium experience
They of course used Rhodium & its relationships with parties it does business with as the first customers of their platform which youd expect. In June 2019 related party rev was 100%, down to 26.5% by Feb 2020 & last q down to under 10% as they onboard more 3rd parties.
Read 12 tweets
28 Dec
$rkt IR responded. No comment on dividends or accelerated buyback which isnt surprising but did give a good response to my question on thr 21B in loans held on balance sheet. Doesnt seem like an issue to those concerned about it as 97% sold to govt and average days held is 18 Image
From their 8k on 12/18. Funding facility has 29.3B as of 12/18 so plenty of funding Image
So basically shorts who think the 21B is debt or presents a risk to $rkt are dead wrong as company shows 97% of loans sold to govt (fannie/freddie) and only 2% to other parties last q. Average days held just 18 and company itself says this presents an “insignificant risk”
Read 5 tweets
28 Dec
Been seeing lot of bullishness on $ozon. Not negative on it but not very high on it either. Honestly wouldnt surprise me to see it drop further & hit ipo price of $30/share at some point. Growth has def accelerated and expected to be 55% cagr next 5 yrs but seems too optimistic
Negatives: lot of competition & not even leader in its own space in Russia. What happened to owning the best & paying up for that? This clearly not it as seems more an example of this is what we’ve got available to invest in so lets work with it & frame narrative around the stock
Russia is a vast territory so delivery, logistics, & warehousing will never be as profitable and with the weather much more challenging. Also concerned about potential retaliation (tariffs, sanctions) when biden gets into office. Most of russia economy is oil and precious stones
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec
$gogo why I’m long:
$gogo sold it’s CA biz for $400M in cash plus 17M/yr rev guarantee. Before sale company had 117M cash and 1.126B debt paying 120M a year in interest expense however the CA biz was where all the losses were. The remaining BA biz is actually profitable
Last q $gogo broke out that BA biz had operating income of 22M for the q, after subtracting 31M in interest expense they lost 9M. After sale of Ca biz they now have 460M in cash which they plan to pay down debt & refinance the 10% interest. They estimate this will save 50M/yr $
$gogo said they plan to refinance debt before May (which is why I bought May calls) & that its their top priority. $gogo has history of outperforming timelines, they said CA biz sale would happen before end of 1q and they finished it in Dec, expect refinance well before May
Read 11 tweets

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