Perceived vs. real risk

PERCEIVED RISK: "Investing feels like gambling...I might lose money in the stock market"

REAL RISK: "If I don't invest, I'm 100% going to run out of money at the end of my life"

Most beginners get stuck at Perceived risk & never understand the real risk
Risk changes over time

INTRODUCTORY RISK: “I’m young & risk seeking…100% equities”

ADVANCED RISK: If you have $10mm, you might want to decrease your risk because you’ve already won the game.

Very hard for people to turn the page. "What got you here won't get you there"
When is it NOT worth the risk? What is "enough?"

This is very, very hard

Here's one of my favorite examples from the fitness world
RISK IS RARELY FOUND ON A SPREADSHEET

Ask a 40+ person: "When you think about investing in the stock market, what do you feel?"

After they say "It feels like gambling," point out return rates, 4% rule, etc

None of it will matter because FOR MOST PEOPLE, RISK IS AN EMOTION

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More from @ramit

30 Dec 20
We've been working with people to help them find their Dream Jobs, including:

- Large raises ($10,000 - $80,000)
- Flexible schedules / work from home
- Changing industries

Here are 5 mistakes that many average applicants make in their job search process 👇
Average Applicant mistake #1: Going to a job board with no plan

People go to a random website, post a resume, and wait. They're passively delegating their career to an algorithm.

It's demoralizing, you're competing with thousands of others, and worst of all, it's ineffective
Average Applicant job search mistake #2: Sticking to what they know

Take a Marketing Manager who dislikes his job. He finally decides to make a change, goes to a website, and types in...

"Marketing Manager"

THE VERY JOB HE DISLIKES!

People do this because it's what they know
Read 7 tweets
9 Aug 20
Oh good, another New York Times article interviewing Trump-supporting white Evangelicals.

Allow me to translate their quotes.

“I am afraid of others who are different than I am”
“I don’t want to expose my children to different values or more education. I know that the more education my children receive, the more likely they are to embrace liberal values and that scares me”
“I do not understand history, but I feel strongly about my opinions”
Read 8 tweets
5 Aug 20
Here’s a mental model we use at IWT:

People’s future selves are aspirational.

Oh, you want to know what I’m planning *next month?*

OF COURSE I’ll floss every day, exercise 10x/week, & volunteer every Sun.

But today? Well, I’m really busy…

What this means for you...(1/3)
-We prefer to defer pain (“I’ll do that next wk...”)
-Our current behavior is a better predictor of future behavior than our aspirational identity
-The longer the time horizon, the more inaccurate our predictions are (e.g., “I’ll start volunteering when I retire”)
(2/4)
This is one reason I’m skeptical of people who say that once they retire, they’ll start woodworking, traveling, volunteering, & advising. There are entire communities who live for a “tomorrow” that’s 10+ years away and highly aspirational
(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul 20
Many people will happily pay 1% advisor fees, never realizing the fees will quietly add up to $300,000+ over their lifetime...

...but they will instantly reject the idea of paying $500/hour for a great tutor, coach, or lawyer

Why do you think this is?
I call these PHANTOM COSTS. They’re the invisible costs that add huge — and invisible — costs to your purchase.

If people truly understood these fees, they would be outraged. If they eliminated them, they could spend *extravagantly* on things they wanted, even paying $1,000/hour for amazing advisors & still have $X00,000+ left over. But this requires sophistication
Read 6 tweets
1 Jul 20
We once considered creating a program on how to find a mentor. After doing a few weeks of customer research, we scrapped the entire idea because nobody will ever buy a program on how to find a mentor. 1/9
The big insight: PEOPLE WANT A MENTOR, BUT THEY DON'T WANT TO DO THE WORK TO FIND A MENTOR. 2/9
They want to be able to call Michelle Obama, or text Tim Ferriss, or hang with Richard Branson on his island...but they don't want to do the painstaking work of becoming valuable enough that someone would want to mentor them! 3/9
Read 9 tweets
13 Feb 20
How interesting.

Virtually everyone agrees that when I paid for dinner, it was a good value.

But when I rent an apartment (instead of buying), suddenly many more people think I’m “throwing money away on rent.”

What’s going on here?
Some thoughts on why people believe dinner is good, but renting is throwing $ away.

1. Financialization of real estate. In America, we believe that our house should also be an investment. Why? It’s not like that in many other countries.
2. Propaganda. The powerful RE lobby + government + our parents all tell us that “real estate is the best investment of all.” There are even governmental tax incentives to buy! Repeat this for decades and a population starts to blindly believe, rather than running the numbers.
Read 7 tweets

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