Thread by @AugustJPollak

I’m going to be honest here, these numbers appear good but at the same time they… Don’t really appear good enough. Perdue beat Ossoff by 88,000 votes in the general.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1343934052504633346

Let’s say with 80k new voters and a very generous pro-Dem lean of 75%: that’s a 40k net gain for Ossoff. Barely half of what he needs.

This is just the back of the envelope stuff, but what that would mean is that at the rate of new registrations, Democrats would basically have to be matched on LACK of enthusiasm from Republicans at the same rate.

In other words, it’s great if Democrats get 50,000 new voters, but unless another 40,000 existing Republican voters also just don’t vote, it’s not gonna be enough to win. And that’s a tough call.

None of that is meant to be discouraging, just an observation that, yeah, this is a hell of an uphill battle.