Even if they had won the iPhone, embraced ARM and nailed GPUs with a non x86 Larrabee, they would still be losing share and in deep trouble due to the timing of EUV insertion.
2) i.e. Apple would be moving away from them to TSM and they would have zero share in discrete GPU given a two node disadvantage in GPU with none of the advantages in CPU conferred on them by x86 and Intel specific software optimizations.
3) Alternatively, if they had successfully inserted EUV at the same time as TSM sans iPhone, sans GPU, sans ARM, they would be in a better position today than in the above scenario.
If you are 2 nodes behind, nothing else really matters.
4) Important to remember x86 share loss in revenue $ terms dwarfs any potential GPU share gains (for now).
But yes, ideally they would have embraced the iPhone, designed a good GPU 6ish years ago, created a CUDA like tool chain for AI and executed on EUV.
5) There is hope especially with yesterdays events. Likely CXL dominance makes them the only real LT competitor to NVDA post MLNX/ARM. Data center as a computer is real. AMD will eventually need an answer here. EMIB, Foveros are ahead of TSM. Just need to succeed with EUV.
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1) The "Roaring 20s" followed World War I and the Spanish Flu.
Interested to see if history repeats and we have another "Roaring 20s" following Covid.
2) Think there is a reasonable chance that the two year period from mid 2021 through mid 2023 will see the strongest demand *ever* for leisure travel and apparel.
Credit to Evercore for the idea.
Time will tell!
3) Want to clarify that my “Roaring 20s” comment referred to consumer behavior, not a decade long bull market.
I rarely have an opinion on the overall stock market and certainly don’t have any demonstrated ability to consistently time the market. See:
1) Last week was obviously a huge rotation towards reopening & travel names on the Pfizer news.
Reopening and travel baskets were up +12%ish vs. Megacap Tech, Software and Stay at Home baskets down -2 to -6%. Insane moves in the Momentum factor.
Moderna news likely next week.
2) Curious to see how the market trades on the Moderna readout and likely Regeneron approval given Covid third wave, increasing lockdowns and credit card data rolling over hard.
Setup and positioning are quite different now vs. going into the Pfizer news.
3) Tech and WFH names were strong the day of the election and were especially strong the Wednesday immediately after Biden won.
2) “No matter what your market orientation, you are likely constrained, in gravity-like fashion, by one unshakeable reality: there is a finite amount of money that you are able to lose and still remain in the game.”
3) Permanent loss of capital is the most significant risk, but there are many forms of risk and uncertainty when it comes to investing.
Volatility is a legitimate way to think about risk because LPs don’t always control when they have to withdraw capital.
1) Instinct is that risk/reward on the market is deteriorating rapidly, but thought I would highlight parts of the bull case that had struck me recently.
Sentiment and positioning are overwhelmingly bearish. Chart via the superb GS macro/hedge fund specialist team.
2) Valuation for the broader market remains attractive, especially when comparing dividend yield to interest rates and suspect we have seen most of the dividend cuts. Chart via ERP. Goldstein is the 🐐 when it comes to strategists.
3) Liquidity is an overwhelming tailwind. Would ordinarily dismiss “price to liquidity” as prima facie absurd but Darda was one of the few who was bearish going into 2008-2009 and then got bullish towards the bottom. And liquidity always paramount - see Druckenmiller comments.
2) Vastly more venture $ have gone into AI accelerators vs. SmartNICs which will help "cheat the laws of physics" by putting more processing and intelligence in the network.
Suspect SmartNICs will end up being a much better investment.
3) History of semiconductors suggests it is really hard to dethrone a dominant incumbent.
CPUs: ARM couldn't displace x86 in PC/Server, x86 couldn't displace ARM in handsets, AMD has never displaced Intel in x86.
Similar story in GPUs & basebands - same #1, same architecture.