1/ Let's talk about returns and return expectations. For traders, this year was probably the biggest opportunity set since...1999?
Many people struggled this year due to obvious reasons but us traders have been living in another reality.
2/ As most of you know I livestream my trading on Twitch every day using simple setups and principles with no rocket science or fancy indicators involved.
I started the year with $3.7M in all trading accounts combined and finishing it with $36M.
That's an 870% return.
/3 It has been the journey of my life and I did not think making more than $100K was possible when I started trading.
A lot of people had insane returns this year, most due to luck, few due to skill. Most WILL give it all back, a few will keep it.
4/ New traders have the tendency to get more agressive and reckless when their accounts go straight up (been there, done that many times).
When you start feeling like a Greek God just having defeated the Titans, that's when things can mostly go downhill and bad things happen.
/5
A lot of traders I have been checking in on over the years are having 5-10-20x returns over their previous years both %- and $-wise.
I'm talking about daytraders, scalpers, swing traders, long biased, short biased. This market had something for everyone.
/6 Now let's get to return expectations. This year was not a normal market year and stocks will not only go up forever.
As account sizes grow, egos and return expectations tend to grow also for many.
Can things get crazier? Absolutely, and I hope it will.
Will 2021 be as good of an opportunity set as 2020? Possible, but not probable.
Don't expect you favorite stock up 500-1000% from March lows to keep going up forever.
What i am trying to say is, don't get cocky and don't get sloppy. The market has been super forgiving this year.
/8
Stick to your setups, stops and money management rules. If you lack these - it's never too late to start learning.
If you had an amazing year, it was mostly the market, not you.
If you didn't have an amazing year, it was you, not the market.
/9
If you did well, don't be afraid to share some of it. Spend at you local businesses, help out family and friends.
Just a few thoughts to end the year.
Happy New Year to all my beloved followers and let's stick to the setups and rules next year again!
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1/ Best and worst and most memorable trades of 2020:
$TVIX short in March was my first $1M loss. It was also my first $1M gain a week later.
$KODK accidental fat finger halt halt halt $1.5M loss that got me into the Wall Street Journal, on the last page with David Beckham.
/2
My biggest losses every year are ALWAYS shorts. This is why I don't recommend anyone to short on the stream.
Can't really remember any big losses due to breaking rules or trading setups that were not mine.
/3
One of the biggest mistakes I made was being too bearish after the market bottomed in March and kept shorting some triple ETFs before I finally got my shit together and started buying 5-star long setups.
2/ "A study published in June of almost 1,600 Brazilian day traders that tracked their activity for one year concluded that only 3% made money... Only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage and only 0.5% earned more than the initial salary of a bank teller"
3/ "An older study, going back to 2000 analyzed 66,000 trading accounts at Charles Schwab from 1991 to 1996. They found that those who traded the most earned an annual return of 11.4%, while the market overall returned 17.9%."