Media reports of pressures on the NHS are all true. The situation in London is now MUCH worse than the first wave, and still deteriorating. Sad to see long queues of ambulances outside the hospital where I work. Re-visiting reasons for hope and also words of caution…. 1/10
1. We understand the disease: The baptism of fire in the spring taught us how COVID-19 behaves. NHS teams have reflected on what worked and what didn’t. For example, we know we will see problems like blood clots and kidney damage more often than usual. 2/10
2. Treatments are more focused: The media furore around wonder drugs was a massive distraction but @NIHRresearch and others have rapidly delivered major clinical trials which busted a few myths eg hydroxychloroquine and showed simple things can save lives eg dexamethasone. 3/10
3. Escalation plans: The vast planning exercise before the first wave had a lasting impact. Our escalation plans for the second wave are tried, tested and improved. We know how best to use our real estate making patient care more efficient. 4/10
4. Logistics are in place: Equipment supply chains were very strained in March. We came close to running out of PPE, ventilators, dialysis equipment, clothing ('scrubs') and lots more. Supply chains are now more resilient. Supplies and equipment are not a big worry. 5/10
5. Calm routine: In the first wave our planning was very excitable. Sometimes it showed. We wasted time managing people with ill-conceived ideas which weren't going to work. This time we know what to do. Staff are well drilled. New staff are trained quickly and efficiently. 6/10
6. We can see light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccination programmes are our best hope and these are ramping up fast as new vaccines come on line. Feel very grateful to get mine this week. #DocsForVax 7/10
BUT there are several notes of caution. We must take these seriously to avoid unnecessary loss of life. The new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more contagious and LOTS of people out there right now don’t realise they are infecting others. 8/10
Expectations on NHS staff are too high. We are trying to deliver the usual NHS service (cancer, stroke, heart disease etc) and admit every COVID patient while we see crowded high streets and people go skiing in Switzerland. 9/10
Morale of NHS staff is badly affected by sceptics. In particular, MPs who argue against public health measures while their local hospitals are in crisis. Please call this out wherever you see it. Thank you for everything you are doing. Proud to be your NHS 💙💙💙 10/10
I should add that many superb Members of Parliament are doing an excellent job as educators and role models. Won't name individuals in case I miss any out, but thank you.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Situation in London continuing to deteriorate as expected. Many doctors are worried that other parts of the UK will follow. A lot of misinformation around, so some fairly blunt observations here, for which I apologise. But we all need to understand the equation. 1/10
As with the first wave, the sharp rise in people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, will be followed by a sharp rise in hospital admissions for COVID-19, and then a similar rise in excess deaths in January.... 2/10
….but like all disasters, for every death we can expect many more people to be injured and survive. And so it is with COVID-19. Most hospitalised patients will survive but they will take a long time to recover. Many will experience so-called ‘Long COVID’. 3/10
News of the lockdown was greeted with grim relief by NHS staff on Saturday. On the one hand, it will ease the pressure on hospitals affected by COVID-19. On the other, everyone’s Christmas is affected including NHS staff, many of whom live away from their families. 1/5
NHS hospitals are under huge pressure and expect to remain so until well into January. The number of people testing positive for the virus SARS-CoV-2 has risen sharply and so have hospital admissions with the disease COVID-19. 2/5
The south-east England and south Wales are worst affected but now some areas of the midlands are seeing high numbers of positive tests as well. With news that the new virus mutation is more infectious, we should prepare for a rebound rise across the UK. 3/5
On the intensive care unit today covering a colleague who is unwell, so only time for a brief update this week. You may have seen a lot of coverage that London hospitals are very badly affected by COVID-19 right now. This is all pretty accurate I’m afraid. 1/10
Hospitals in the north of England seem to be stabilising now which is a relief, but the situation in south Wales, east London and the north Kent remains very difficult. COVID patient numbers have doubled where I work in the last week. 2/10
Compared to the first wave, we are looking after a much larger number of patients with ‘usual’ illnesses. Heart attacks, strokes, trauma, cancer surgery etc. NHS staff are getting pulled in lots of directions. 3/10
Spoke too soon. Two weeks ago I was hopeful that the second COVID tide was starting to turn. Things weren’t easy but had stabilised and national numbers were down. Now we're seeing rising numbers at national level in and several regions, including where I work in east London. 1/7
The number of people testing positive for SARS Cov-2 is definitely up in the last 7 days, while the number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 is beginning to rise, and the number of deaths (which lags behind admissions) was falling but has now levelled off. 2/7
Government data fit with the independent data from @ICNARC describing intensive care admissions. The number of patients in ICU with COVID-19 appeared to be falling 7 days ago but not any more. 3/7
I’m not a vaccine expert so it’s reasonable to ask why I am confident that I want to be vaccinated for COVID-19. I will have the jab for myself, my family, friends, my work colleagues and even for people I don't know. A few reflections... #DocsForVax 1/9
First of all, I have seen first-hand too many times what COVID can do to people. It’s a truly horrible disease. It damages the lungs, the kidneys, the heart. It causes blood clots. It kills people and those who survive can take a long time to recover. #DocsForVax 2/9
As an ICU doctor, I know that every treatment I give can bring benefit or harm to my patient. I routinely balance these risks in my mind. Like all drugs, vaccines can have side-effects, but they will likely be rare compared to the harms of COVID-19. #DocsForVax 3/9
Themes of the week: vaccine roll-out, the COVID tide turning, and the lockdown ending. This is where I think we’re at, having talked again with friends across the UK and compared this all with the national data. 1/9
Friends in many (not all) badly hit hospitals tell me the second COVID tide is beginning to turn. BUT the NHS is still really busy keeping surgery services going, as well as winter pressures of acute medical admissions, and then COVID on top of all that. 2/9
News from ground level fits with the national data which show a consistent decrease in numbers of people testing positive for SARS CoV-2, a decrease in patients being admitted to hospital with COVID-19, and in subsequent deaths. 3/9