1. A brief thread on why we should not panic but should worry, even be a bit...alarmed.
I've been speaking with former Trump Administration officials and with other former senior national security types who remain plugged in to the Pentagon.
2. They think we'll most likely "be ok;" but they are worried about what one called the three I's:
Iran.
The Insurrection Act.
and (White House and civilian DOD leadership) Insanity.
3. Iran.
January 3 is the anniversary of Suleimani's killing, followed shortly by the end of the 40-day mourning period for Fakhrizadeh. So there is the prospect of Iranian retaliation, to which a U.S. response (or conceivably preemptive action) would certainly be legitimate.
1. A possible additional data point: Derek Lyons is Trump's staff secretary. After working on the Jeb! campaign (!), he joined the Trump White House on day one, working for Rob Porter. Lyons succeeded Porter as staff secretary in Feb. 2018, became part of Trump's inner circle...
2. ...and was going to become domestic policy chief in May of this year, but was stopped by a revolt by America First purists. He got the consolation prize of adding Counselor to the President to his staff secretary job, joining Hope Hicks and Kellyanne Conway who had that title.
3. He's traveled a lot with Trump, and has been in the inner circle (for example, he was at last Friday's meeting in the Oval Office). But at the beginning of last week, he announced he was leaving before the end of the year--surprising for someone who seemed such a loyalist.
1. This thread is based on recent conversations with people whose information and judgment I trust, who in turn have spoken candidly with Trump appointees still on the inside.
Here's a question: Why did Trump and Barr, when they negotiated Barr's departure, settle on Dec. 23?
2. It could, obviously, be kind of random--a date picked last week to allow Barr to get things in order, an accommodation of Barr's family schedule, etc. But it could also be that Barr very much wanted to get out before Dec. 24, and/or that Trump wanted him out by then.
3. One obvious possibility discussed in the White House: Trump has spoken about a bunch of pardons on Christmas Eve. Some of the names may have been too much for Barr--so they agreed on his departure on Dec. 23.
I guess we could call ourselves Democratic-Republicans? 1. We’re Republicans or ex-Republicans who are pro-democracy. 2. We want to advance what’s best in both existing parties. 3. The original Democratic-Republican Party was founded by Jefferson and Madison, and was successful.
Another thread.
More on DOD, based on further conversations with well-informed former Trump officials: 1. NSA Robert O'Brien also key; he urged removal of Esper, putting in Miller and Patel. 2. Having total loyalists not just at Sec Def but at DOD Policy and Intel is a big deal.
3. Re Miller, Patel, Tata, Cohen-Watnick, Ellis (new general counsel at NSA): "None is remotely qualified for the job he holds." But that's doesn't matter to WH. Along with Ratcliffe at DNI, we're getting close to Trumpist control or attempted control of the "power ministries."
4. Who knows whether intentions are mostly petty, or domestic election interference, or unimpeded decisions in foreign policy (latter could range from military force to military withdrawals, and from pro-Putin to pro-MBS). But, I'm told, both Esper and Milley are truly worried.
Short thread.
FWIW, my takeaway from conversations last night with recent DOD senior officials: 1) DOD under Esper has pushed back more than many people realize against many Trump ideas, ranging from use of troops here at home, to Afghan withdrawal, to military options re Iran.
2) Chris Miller's career has been entirely in counter-terrorism, and Trump knows him in that context from his job at NSC. "Totally out of his depth" for broad responsibilities as Sec Def--but if Trump wants to launch more Suleimani-like raids, it would sense to have Miller there.
3) Kash Patel will be most powerful person in building as COS to Sec Def. A Trump loyalist, he helped engineer these changes, and is very close to WH Trumpists like McEntee and Meadows. Patel a more effective operator than Miller, will effectively be running civilian side of DOD.