Thread by @Lion_King_ET

Some reflections on a @ForeignAffairs article by @Fromagehomme and Yohannes Woldemariam

foreignaffairs.com/articles/afric…

I. Myth of protracted guerrilla warfare and sustained TPLF insurrection:

- TPLF is in no condition to re-constitute itself or its forces to launch any such insurrection.

Its capacity had been severely degraded by the determined, justified onslaught of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF).

- This to say nothing of the underwhelming capacity of the special force it claimed to have prepared: teenagers with inadequate training & orientation as to what was asked of them.

- TPLF leadership severely miscalculated its capacity vis-à-vis the fighting morale, military prowess as well as technological sophistication of ENDF’s advanced capabilities.
- There is no conceivable chance of another “sustained & bloody” insurgency.

TPLF’s leadership is in disarray – on the run in multiple divergent, aimless directions to save its own soul, much less be in a position to command an organized counter-offensive!

- TPLF’s defeat had nothing to do with Eritrean involvement in this law enforcement operation, despite TPLF’s desperate attempt to provoke Eritrea’s involvement through rockets fired at Asmara.

There is simply no credible evidence of Eritrea’s involvement – nor is there a need for third party involvement; ENDF is perfectly capable of dealing a crushing blow to a bandit group led by coterie of treasonous kleptocrats!

II. Myth of false equivalence between TPLF & the Tigrayan people:

- TPLF and the Tigrayan people are not - & if the record of the past 30+ years is any guide – cannot be one & the same!

- TPLF junta was mainly self-absorbed in enriching itself, willfully ignoring the pressing needs of the Tigrayan people: access to clean water; health; education; development; food security; etc.
- It may very well be the case that the Tigrayan people will be the greatest…

…beneficiaries of the law enforcement operation launched by the @PMEthiopia @AbiyAhmedAli, as it may have set them free of TPLF’s ruthless iron grip!
- Factually incorrect to claim that the military offensive was justified by “stoking [an] anti-Tigrayan sentiment.”

Quite the contrary! TPLF brazenly provoked an inevitable & necessary “law enforcement” onslaught by the Govt. of #Ethiopia.

- No basis to claim that the military offensive for the much-needed “law enforcement” operation will “engender a deep antipathy towards the central govt.” Main combat operations just concluded! Too soon to make such an assertion.

- In any event, the Tigrayan people will have the opportunity to express their free will in the upcoming nation-wide election, completely free of the heretofore commonplace TPLF intimidation – and unburdened by fear of retribution!

III. Crocodile tears over alleged ethnic profiling of Tigrayans:

- Given how Northern Command of the ENDF was infiltrated & savagely assaulted from within by treasonous Tigrayan soldiers, a measure of precaution was not only prudent, but also absolutely necessary in the early days of the law enforcement operation!

- Given how ethnic Tigrayans had come to (undeservedly/unfairly) dominate power levers in several critical positions within the economic, political, security, & social establishments of the country, it should come as no surprise that any crack down for potential treasonous…

…criminality would have them targeted – because they enjoyed near monopoly in critical sectors of society to the exclusion of other ethnic groups.

- It could well be extrapolated that those complaining of being profiled were getting a bitter taste of TPLF’s own venom of ethnic divisiveness that had poisoned the nation at large for a long 27+ years!

- Perhaps, ultimately the time maybe ripe soon to re-evaluate the wisdom ethnic federalism and seriously consider necessary constitutional amendment.

IV. Myth that @PMEthiopia @AbiyAhmedAli is fearful of TPLF’s potential role in #Ethiopia’s body politic:

-@PMEthiopia @AbiyAhmedAli did not dismantle EPRDF, nor create the @prosperity2022 overnight on a spur of the moment. It was an on-going deliberation for several years ....

... running within the party coalition. TPLF was invited to join the @prosperity2022, but chose to make itself an outcast. (Many opine b/c TPLF’s only intention is, as it has always been, to dominate, not co-exist as ‘first among equals!’)

- Elections were not postponed by the @PMEthiopia, but rather by the National Electoral Board of the country (@NEBEthiopia), which has the sole constitutional authority to conduct elections and certify electoral outcomes.

@NEBEthiopia deemed it impossible to conduct a free & credible election due to a public health emergency posed by COVID-19!

-It’s an absolute false narrative to peddle the lie that @PMEthiopia postponed the election for fear of an unfavorable result!

V. Myth of both sides-ism on human rights violation and crimes against humanity:

- The West’s penchant for both sides-ism relying on deliberately misleading prevarication by TPLF operatives & its apologists does not pass muster!

- Deliberate, premeditated human rights violations are the hallmarks of the TPLF junta; orchestrated by itself & its proxies, including mercenaries it entrenched within the security apparatus for 27 years!

- Consider human rights abuses from recent atrocities alone: Metekel; Western Wellega; Burayu; Shasamane, etc. No doubt TPLF’s hands were in every single one of them.

- The most egregious recent case the Mai-Karda massacre in early November 2020, where 1000+ innocent civilians, mostly ethnic Amharas, were targeted for a grisly pogrom by a Tigrayan youth group called “Samri,” in what can only be defined as “ethnic cleansing!”

-Clearly, there is only one party that is unequivocally guilty of pre-meditated war crimes and crimes against humanity!
-Any so-called “independent” investigation into war crimes has to be owned & led by the independent institutions of the Govt. of Ethiopia.

External entities neither fully grasp the local context nor possess sufficient contextual intelligence to uncover the truth and/or triangulate and corroborate allegations.

-Here is an excellent example of an investigation being led by @EthioHRC :

https://twitter.com/hrcoethio/status/1342523727892905985

docs.google.com/document/d/1vS…

VI. Myth that donor money will “make or break” Ethiopia’s destiny:

-Donor money can/will NEVER, EVER “make or break” #Ethiopia’s or any country’s destiny!

-Even when well-intentioned, foreign aid can only be complementary to our own efforts; it cannot supplant own efforts!

- Any donor money predicated on compromising our national interest, sovereignty, or dignity is designed only as a tool for control & manipulation!

- Any govt.’s accountability is to the people it serves, not to outsiders who blackmail for a pittance!

VII. Myth of TPLF’s revival and false equivalence between TPLF and Govt. of #Ethiopia:

- The myth that TPLF will make a comeback to play any role in #Ethiopia’s body politic is just that: a myth! It’s now a defunct organization – for long unable to re-invent itself.

- There is zero chance of so-called “negotiated settlement” of any sort with a treasonous, terrorist organization! There is no moral equivalence b/n a legitimate, duly constituted govt. and a terrorist organization hell-bent on dismantling the nation from within!

-Far from a crisis of legitimacy, by prosecuting a much-needed, long overdue "law enforcement" operation, @PMEthiopia has asserted its legitimate authority and has responded to citizen demand for upholding "law & order!"

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