Episode 82 Bill Ackman (@BillAckman)

The legendary activist investor talks about lessons he’s learned growing up, raising a family, what drives him forward and back up from failure, consuming information and ideas, and facing criticism.

fs.blog/knowledge-proj…

@chamath

Episode 94: Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath)

The Founder and CEO of Social Capital reveals what it means to be an observer of the present, how to think in first principles, the psychology of successful investing.

fs.blog/knowledge-proj…

Read 9 tweets

Shane Parrish

@ShaneAParrish

10 Dec 20

There is a mental model known as inversion.

And it is one of the most powerful thinking tools you can incorporate into your daily life.

Here's how you can use it to think better.

👇👇👇

The trick to inversion is simple: figure out what you don’t want and avoid it.

Charlie Munger, the legendary partner of Warren Buffett summarized inversion when he said, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”

Problems get easier when you turn them around. Rather than ask what you can do to be happy, avoid all the things that make you miserable.

Read 13 tweets

Shane Parrish

@ShaneAParrish

27 Nov 20

There is a concept known as probabilistic thinking.

Here is how you can use it in work and life.

👇👇👇

Probability means different things to different people.

Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass.

The core of probabilistic thinking is understanding that nearly infinite alternative outcomes could have taken place than did. This means nearly infinite possibilities are possible going forward, which doesn’t mean they are equally probable.

Read 11 tweets

Shane Parrish

@ShaneAParrish

17 Nov 20

There is a mental model you can use to better understand the world called thought experiments.

Here’s what thought experiments are, why they’re useful, and three lessons you can instantly apply today.

👇👇👇

Thought experiments enable us to explore for the purpose of thinking. They reveal our instinctive knowledge, allow us to predict implications and outcomes, and anticipate problems.

Perhaps an example will help illustrate. I use this one from my friend Peter Kaufman.

Imagine yourself at 95. You’re walking in the woods on a quiet day. As you walk you look back on your life.

Imagine what people will say about you when you’re gone. As you look back on all the things you’ve done and accomplished, you discover what was noise and what matters.

Read 12 tweets

Shane Parrish

@ShaneAParrish

12 Nov 20

Here’s the difference between amateurs and professionals.

👇👇👇

Amateurs solve the symptom. Professionals solve the problem.

Amateurs think in absolutes. Professionals think in probabilities.

Read 21 tweets

Shane Parrish

@ShaneAParrish

2 Nov 20

There is an important thinking tool known as Level Two Thinking

Here’s what it is, why it matters, and how to use it in everyday life.

👇👇👇

Level One Thinking is simple. This is what happens when you seek to solve the immediate problem without consideration of anything else.

E.g.: Eating a chocolate bar when you’re hungry. Replacing one software problem with another at work to solve a problem.

Level One Thinking also happens when you hear an opinion and don’t think for yourself.

E.g.: Masks don’t work. Buy this stock because it will go up.

Level One Thinking is common thinking. Common thinking reaches the same conclusions. The same conclusions get the same results.

Read 11 tweets

Share this page!

Shane Parrish

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @ShaneAParrish

Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Shane Parrish

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?