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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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2 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/2 TIME TO GIVE BACK! For those of you who’ve benefited from my tweets this year, I humbly ask that u consider a donation to those most in need:“In ‘18, 4% of US adults reported not having enough food to eat. By 7/20, that hit 11%, & it’s only increasing” thenation.com/article/econom…
2/2 In order to encourage participation. I’ll be doing a private 1 hr Q&A zoom session for the top 20 who donate (students will receive a 2x multiplier on donations).My food bank of choice is commonpantry.org/donations/, but by all means feel free to donate in your own community.
Please DM me a screen shot of any donation given from today until next Sat 1/9 (& if you are a student, please also send some proof). Please, give however small... Regardless of size, every donation makes a big difference those in need & is worthy of admiration. 🙏🏽
This is a great idea. In order to encourage more small donations. I will be adding 3 ‘lottery spots’ to the 20 for donations not in the top 20 that are over $20 & extending the time to 1 hr 15 min!

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
4 Jan
1/xThe party’s almost over. But you’d never know it. Nobody wants to go home...It’s been a hell of a party, but I won’t be sticking around much longer. As discussed, the window for weakness officially opens on Tues after the open somewhere near my 2 objectives of 3770.5 & 3811.25
2/x Election Resolution, Vaccine success, Fed support, Stimulus, TSLA inclusion, & the Santa Claus rally is complete. All of these themes that we have been riding now for 3.5 mths have 1 by 1 been resolved exactly as expected. And so, here we sit @ ATH as predicted w/ extremely
3/x overextended sentiment & positioning by both HF & Retail w/ speculative signs of exuberance in products like Bitcoin & breadth divergences flashing bright RED...Vanna flows have driven the expected rally & commensurate Vol compression to an illogical extreme. But their work
Read 18 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
31 Dec 20
1/x No loooong treatise tonight. 1 important observation today....& just 1 important item to watch for tomorrow: OBSERVATION: for the Nth day,despite earlier attempts to do something meaningful in SPX, we once again mean reverted to unchanged. This is not surprising, as Ivol
2/x compression continues to be the overwhelming dominant force. What is notable is how dominant it has become @ this point...as can be seen through the underlying constituents, true idiosyncratic risk is still very much alive. The last 2 days are a great example. The Russell had
3/x an almost -2% day (-2.3% min) followed by an almost +1% (+1.5% max). But in the end all roads lead to Rome...So dispersion continues to be the trade, & all constituents are ultimately tethered flailing to & fro hopelessly attempting to sway the 10k lb 🦍...IF THERE IS 1 THING
Read 8 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
30 Dec 20
1/x Complacency is no longer mounting... it has mounted... & has now broken into an all out gallop. Retail traders are YOLO HODL’ing, dealers & IB traders are greedily leaning shorter & shorter Ivol assuming that the juicy VRP is safe. 1 day event vol for the GA runoff that will
2/2 dictate whether we experience a blue wave or not sits at a paltry $45. With EOY/BOY flows between now & then, & the tax, antitrust, macrocyclical flows & regulatory uncertainty (to name a few small issues) sitting just around the corner after inauguration, Ivol is approaching
3/x it’s nader...I would expect fixed strike Ivol to hit its low assisted by some large coming institutional Vol selling flows that reliably come at the end of each quarter. Sometime between 1/4-1/15 we should see a phenomenal LT IVol buying opportunity...And as I’ve mentioned,
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
29 Dec 20
1/x The 1way santa🎅train🚂 to the moon continues its ascent... Nearly reaching our long called min objective of 3750.75 overnight. As discussed, the window for potencial weakness opens in 5 trading days at 1 of my price 2 objectives of 3770.5, or 3811.25... But now
2/x comes the hard part... Figuring out how the market shakes this accelerating Vol compression & the growing parallel calls for a coming correction to cause the most pain to the greatest # of investors... Where is the PAIN TRADE? Because it is NEVER easy... I have a couple of
3/x thoughts here. It seems more & more likely to me that we could see a rally from 1/5 into 1/11-15 regardless of outcome. This would confound a lot of those preparing for a pullback (especially in the case of a dem sweep), causing dealers to throw in the towel abandoning long
Read 6 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
28 Dec 20
1/x All aboard the Santa Express! As I have made clear for some time now, seasonality through 1/5 is not some magical construct... Vanna and Charm flows paired with EOY/BOY flows will support the market making it hard for it to do anything too dramatic between now & the runoff.
2/x A lot has been resolved and we have been sitting in a bit of a holding pattern for some time now with Election uncertainty, Vaccine success, Fed support, fiscal Stimulus passed, & TSLA inclusion all well understood and behind us...these themes that we have been riding now
3/x for 3 months have 1 by 1 been resolved exactly as expected. &, here we sit @ ATH...The waiting game will soon be over. We have been greedy for some time as the world had been fearful... but the Vanna flows have done their heavy lifting and handed the baton to the charm driven
Read 11 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
25 Dec 20
1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;
2/x While visions of $TSLA danced in their heads;
& Biden in his Covid mask, & Powell with his still flowing money tap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap,
When out on the screen there arose such a clatter,
All sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.
3/x Away to their monitors they flew like a flash,
Tore open their Bloombergs & threw up the dash(board).
The S. Claus rally in markets, that all of us know,
Paired w/vaccine reopening, Gave a bid to the market, leaving old prices below,
When what to their wondering👀 did appear?
Read 14 tweets

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