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3 Jan, 7 tweets, 2 min read
News:

* 2020: hottest year ever recorded

* 2021: carbon emissions already rebounding to pre-COVID19 levels

Next:

* 2022: last chance to cut emissions to avoid 2-2.5°C?

* 2023/24: 1.5°C?

* 2025/26: 1.6°C if emissions don't stop rising?

* 2027/28: summer Arctic sea ice goes?
2020 is the hottest or joint hottest year (to be confirmed in a week or two).

"..the monthly data suggests that emissions have almost come back to 2019 levels now.”

As usual this corporate media article refuses to mention the threat of global crop failures as we approach 2C and Arctic sea ice destruction disrupts the jet stream.

time.com/5922963/climat…
2022 last chance to slash emissions to avoid 2C?

2022 last chance to slash emissions to avoid 2.1-2.5°C?

theguardian.com/environment/20…
If emissions keep rising we'll be on target to hit 2C in the 2030s (2034 at the earliest according to this analysis which uses a conservative 19th century baseline and looks at the latest climate models which may underestimate Arctic heating and feedbacks).carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Summer Arctic sea ice looks likely to be gone by 2026-2035.

Some scientists expect 2022-2025.

As late as the 2040s is possible according to recent studies.

2027/28 is a reasonable projection.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
30 Dec 20
1/ Dear Journalists,

Subject: Ecological Ruin

Emissions must stop rising in 2021 for a fair chance of decent human survival.

Emissions must plummet towards zero in the years 2021-2029 for a fair chance of decent human survival.

Emissions are likely to keep rising in 2021.
2/
We are in a profound Ecological Catastrophe caused by the human activities of industrial capitalism. Economic growth has proved to be extraordinarily destructive. Technology will not prevent our predicament from becoming impossible to handle.

3/
Ecosystem collapse is already happening, and not just because of abrupt climate change.

Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
29 Dec 20
Dangerous Assumptions

1. CO₂ sucking machines will soon work
2. Economic growth isn't destructive
3. Global warming of 2°C won't break us
4. Arctic summer sea ice loss isn't key
5. Permafrost thaw isn't yet a worry
6. Sea level won't rise 0.22m by 2035

THREADs for journalists:
1.
We should work on the assumption that CCS, DAC, BECCS won't work soon, though the IPCC suggests they should be up and running well by now.

This means 'net zero 2050' must be rejected and replaced by 'real zero 2025-2030'.

Thread:
2.
Economic growth is destructive. The economy is causing a mass extinction and the collapse of Earth's major ecosystems. Degrowth looks like the only logical alternative if we want decent survival.

Thread:
Read 10 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
26 Dec 20
Remember:

1) Earth's ecosystems are collapsing, some uncontrollably

2) 37- 55% of species look set to face extinction in the next few decades

3) horrific 1.6- 2°C of global warming will hit by 2035

And yet...silence.

The Biggest News Story In Human History is being ignored.
"Ecosystem collapse is already happening".

It appears to be too late to stop the destruction of 99% of tropical corals and many major forests like the Amazon, but most scientists say that it is still possible in theory to limit/end the damage. We must try.
Until people are allowed to fully grasp the deeply grim reality of the science, meaningful action which challenges capitalist growth will remain elusive.

'Scientists estimate we're now lowering species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the normal rate'.
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
23 Dec 20
Dear Journalists & Editors,

Please find enclosed a first Thread of 10 Threads with peer-reviewed & IPCC science to help you report on key aspects of the rapidly expanding Ecological-Climate Catastrophe.

First up: Arctic Sea Ice Loss & The Polar Jet Stream Crisis

Cheers,
Ben
👇
1. Arctic Sea Ice Loss by 2035 will be one of a number of threats to global food security as we approach or even exceed 2°C at which point the IPCC says agriculture will shift from being at 'moderate' to 'high' risk.

Thread:
2. The ongoing destruction of Earth's forests appears to have lead us to a crucial tipping point.

Tropical Rainforests look increasingly unlikely to avoid collapse in the coming decades.

Thread:
Read 11 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
23 Dec 20
The destructive industrial agriculture of free-market and state capitalism fails to feed the world and is rapidly wiping out the insects and forests that humans depend on for survival by wrecking habitats and emitting vast quantities of greenhouse gases.insideclimatenews.org/news/08082019/…
Food systems account for 37% of greenhouse-gas emissions. We must rethink destructive agriculture immediately.

'Very high risks related to.. food system instability are identified at 2°C of global warming.'

Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) August 2019
'IPCC Report Shows Food System Overhaul Needed to Save the Climate'

Georgina Gustin August 8, 2019

'the entire food production system, with transportation and packaging included, accounts for as much as 37 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions..'
insideclimatenews.org/news/08082019/…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
23 Dec 20
Deadly climate change heat waves will hit billions of people by the 2030s or 2040s (some literally unsurvivable without air conditioning) obliterating entire ecosystems and wiping out species but I guess you already know all this thanks to our unbiased, truth-telling free press?
'The incredibly simple solution to saving lives during a heatwave'.

10 Aug 2020 by Laurie Goering

'3.5 billion people expected to be hit by deadly heatwaves by mid-century'

An absurd headline.. weforum.org/agenda/2020/08…
'deadly heat events..indicative of the continuing trend toward increasingly extreme humid heat..a major societal challenge for the coming decades'

advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/e…

'The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance'.
Read 5 tweets

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