Cases: over *70,000* people who were tested in England on 29th December tested positive. This is *not* because there were more tests on that day.
It *is* 4 days after Christmas though, around when people who caught Covid on Christmas Day might start getting symptoms. 2/9
The case data is very jumpy for the last week because of big drops in tests over Xmas and report lags. But the positivity rate from tests is shooting up - *everywhere*.
London has been in Tier 4 for 2 weeks.
Biggest worry: there is *no sign* that tier 4 is working. 3/9
There are now almost 25,000 people with Covid-19 in English hospitals - 32% more than the April peak. 4/9
Admissions are also now at April peak levels - *on top* of this much higher occupancy.
*and* cases are *still* going up which they were not at April peak.
We are still, at best, 2 weeks from peak - and that's *if* decisive action is taken *now*. 5/9
Admissions are rising everywhere. Steeper than they did in the autumn. No sign of slowdown - even in London, 2 weeks after tier 4 started.
I can't tell you how scary I find this. We are not even slowing this thing down - let alone reversing it. 6/9
In London, hospital admissions have doubled about every 2 weeks since beginning of December. Cases doubled in the 2 weeks to 29th Dec (much of which while in Tier 4).
People will *keep arriving* in *greater numbers* at London hospitals that are already fuller than in April. 7/9
Cases in England are *more than twice as high* as they were before November lockdown. The number of peple in hospital is *much higher*, admissions are almost at their highest level and increasing rapidly.
Why is the government doing literally nothing?! 8/9
We need lockdown, closed (in person) schools & unis for Jan, much better support for isolation and ramp in vaccination. we need it now, today.
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.
1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?
A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.
1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.
Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?
A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"
Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed
Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"
1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"
"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"
"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"
2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"
"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"
TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.
Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.
Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12
However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.
THREAD: Various new or expanded cancer screening programmes have been announced recently and coverage has been overwhelmingly on the pros. But there are cons too.
First a screening recap : a relatively simple test that flags potential cause for concern. If flagged, you are offered more, gold standard, testing, often in a hospital (e.g. MRI scans, blood tests, other diagnostic procs). If those +Ve too, you are offered cancer treatment. 2/24
The benefits are clear: If you have undiagnosed serious cancer, screening can save your life if it leads to earlier treatment.
In this case massively beneficial to you *and* to NHS which can save on longer, more expensive treatment from later diagnosis 3/24