Thread by @FinPlanKaluAja1

If I borrow, I'm accountable to pay it back. Thus I am very careful when I take debt

If I am a CEO, and I borrow, it affects my Company profitability, thus I am responsible

If I borrow as an elected official, I am only responsible for a maximum of 8 years. important to note

Few nations do not borrow

Debt is simply upfront consumption. When you borrow, you are essentially saying you want to use future revenues today

Hence you create a vacuum of revenue in the future. The rationale is to borrow, create wealth today, cover future vacuum

Thus If you borrow today and invest in a non-income-generating activity, you leave that future income vacuum intact.

Hence the term ROI seeks to measure how much return any investment will accrue to cover future obligations

Let's get specific

If I create a scale of preference of 10 projects in Nigeria to borrow to fund....what will be my criteria?

Only 1....ability to cover that future income vacuum.

I simply rank projects in that order. eg

1. Coastal railway
2. Refinery
3. Tolled 4th Mainland bridge
4..etc

What about borrowing for Schools and Hospitals?

I won't borrow for that...why? because I earn taxes. i will deploy 100% of my taxes to cover Social Services and Development Goals because those are "non income" generating projects...aka zero-coupon investments.

So where the project can fund itself and repay its future income vacuum, I borrow and lock in revenues to a sinking fund to repay.

Where the projects will not generate "returns" that are directly financial eg investing in a DNA lab, I use my tax revenues.

Simple

Hence, apply this rationale to the list of projects proposed under the $30b loan

Will a Coastal Railway repay its future income vacuum? Yes

Will a digitized NTA repay its future income vacuum? we dont know..we dont even know anyone will watch TV in 20 years. Technology evolves

Thus would it be a great idea to only fund projects that can repay by that project itself?

Can we transfer that $500m from NTA to fund an inland port in Lokoja?

Trade and moving goods by ships on the water will never change.

I think it's worth a relook

Remember, when elected officials borrow, they don't repay...their children who take over power will repay that income vacuum.

Let's not burden our kids with loans that are going to be repaid from taxes.

Originally written Dec 2019