The Covid-19 recession is the strangest recession in living memory

For starters, it is the most unequal recession - like the virus, decimating some and untouching others.
It is also the most global, with practically all countries going down at the same time
The most unequal recession comes at a time when the world was already most unequal in living memory
Paradoxically, despite the most unequal recession coming at the most unequal time, the decline in spending in this recession is driven by the richest, who have been least impacted [because they can't spend on what they like to spend on]
Because those who are earning the most, are spending the least, we are seeing some of the largest $ increase in personal saving: The U.S. households saved an additional $1.56 trillion dollars
nytimes.com/2021/01/01/ups…
We have the biggest boom in bank accounts, while we have the longest lines at food banks

The economy is an ecosystem. It requires balance. We are not in balance.

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More from @AtifRMian

26 Oct 20
The stock market is not the economy. In fact, rising stock market can be bad news for most!

Annual rise in stock value
1989-2017: 7.5%
1966-1988: 1.6%

Annual rise in corporate output
1989-2017: 2.6%
1966-1988: 3.9%

Corporations produced *less* but gained more in value!
Why?
First, stock market only values profits, and more of corporate output is now going to profits at the expense of workers

Annual rise in corporate profit
1989-2017: 5.1%
1966-1988: 1.8%
Second, the same dollar of profit is now valued more by the markets (the "valuation effect").

See this terrific paper by @ProfGreenwald, Lettau and Ludvigson
nber.org/system/files/w…
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct 20
Students wanting to do a PhD in economics are often told that math is important

here's why (and some important caveats) ...
Markets need to balance out on average, e.g. the total purchase of cotton must equal the total production of cotton by farmers.

There are thousands of such markets and they must all balance out! How does this happen?
It is not possible to keep track of all this without resorting to mathematics, which is a tool for imposing rules and logic that nature dictates must hold.

Then there are many practical economic problems that at their core are mathematical riddles.
Read 7 tweets
17 Oct 20
Why study economics?

It is a science that helps us understand how we are all connected in a mutually-reliant ecosystem

e.g. one person's supply is another person's demand ...
economics gives us insights into how we can design this ecosystem so we help each other become better off, or how we can screw things up in a mutually destructive manner

At its finest, economics is about making the sum bigger than its parts
perhaps contrary to some people's perception, some of the deepest insights of economics are about how selfish and individualistic behavior can be destructive for the broader society - precisely because we are all connected

young minds should consider studying the subject
Read 4 tweets
20 Aug 20
One of the hardest questions is what makes societies change?

"functioning" societies take care of each other, develop trust, tend to work for the common good - and as a result become richer

"mis-functioning" societies seem to do everything in reverse - and as result remain poor
Both types of societies are stable, meaning they can go on like that for long periods of time

The obvious question is how can one change a mis-functioning society into a functioning one? How does change happen at the system level?

Obviously, no single answer here
But by construction, change will be hard - very hard.

Because the reason mis-functioning societies mis-function is that there are groups that are collectively in control, and they benefit from the mis-function

So change requires annoying these dudes, and they don't like that
Read 4 tweets
15 Aug 20
One broad misconception about growth or development is that growth *requires* capital

That is not accurate: to first approximation, growth *creates* capital

some explanation ...
The most important ingredient, or requirement, for growth is productivity.

If productivity rises, firms and individual create a larger surplus that they can then deploy as capital, or investment, for even greater output.

This is the bottom line to keep in mind
Now, you might ask, but doesn't one need capital for boosting productivity?

Not really

Almost always, the constraints societies face have to do with organization, management, trust, rule of law, experimentation, institutions, innovation etc.
Read 7 tweets
5 Aug 20
Big-data driven economic analysis has made remarkable progress over the last 10/12 years

This has huge potential IF policy makers were to harness its power effectively

I was in the middle of trying to understand the economic repercussions of the 2008 recession ...
but stuff you can do today with data is incredibly more powerful, and many young scholars are leading the effort

e.g. we can, in almost real time ...

figure out which groups and areas have been more impacted

track consumer spending at a very detailed and granular level
quickly estimate response to fiscal policies like stimulus payments versus unemployment benefits, credit policies like PPP and mainstream lending

estimate behavioral responses to outbreak of disease etc
Read 6 tweets

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