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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

6 Jan

If you gaze long upon the Ukraine, the Ukraine gazes back into you.

Fun & based as this all is, my objective take is that color revolutions only succeed when there's elite defection. Euromaidan succeeded because oligarchs with Western bank accounts turned on Yanukovych & siloviks didn't want to stick their neck out for a craven backstabber.

Conversely, the Minsk Maidan failed, amongst other things, because elites remained consolidated and Lukashenko maintained loyalty of the siloviks. As I in fact said would happen from the start: unz.com/akarlin/belaru…

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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

21 Dec 20

Russia blocked flights from China soon after word spread of coronavirus, but waited until March 18 to block EU flights. London - Moscow flights remain unrestricted, even as rest of the EU blocks off UK's new strain. This is telling where kremlins' actual reference points lie.

This is why I laugh whenever Westerners or their local Russian agents gaslight us about "rising Chinese influence." The primary problem was, and remains, a culturally Occidentophile comprador elite (idol worshippers before the West, as Soviet ideologists correctly put it).

As many cynics believe, main difference between liberals * kremlins is that former want unilateral surrender, while kremlins hope to claw out more equitable terms from which to integrate themselves into Western elites. Hence, Russian "provocations" really just= "hard bargaining."

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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

5 Dec 20

"ДОГНАТЬ ПОЛЬШУ"

Вопреки ныне широко принятому мнению, Польша вышла впереди России еще до Путина. В 1998, разрыв был такой же, как и сегодня (~20%). Почему? Экономики цент.-вост. Европы были менее деформированные, чем в СССР; у них в целом было меньше всяких проблем (см. ниже).

С 2000 до 2014 был мировой ресурсный суперцикл. За это время, рост ВВП России был даже лучше, чем в Польше (сама одна из наиболее успешных стран в вост. Европе), где наши нефтедоллары заменялись евро-дотациями и других благ членства в ЕС. А потом не только упали цены на нефть..

...но Россия также вступила в геополитическую конфронтацию с Западом, что сделала невозможным проводить щедрую бюджетную или монетарную политику. Вот сравните процентные ставки в Польше и России с 2014 года, конечно с такими цифрами рост будет скромный.

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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

28 Sep 20

@RT_com

Not just RIA Novosti, but @RT_com itself, as well as - apparently - Chinese state media (Xinhua, Global Times, etc).

https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1310707608227950592

This is information asymmetry. Western platforms are allowed to bombard Russian Internet users with their propaganda, but Russian outlets are increasingly barred from doing so - and not even just state-owned ones (see Tsargrad's defenestration from YouTube).

Russian youth gets more of its news from the Internet & since 2018, they have been increasingly influenced by Western propaganda. If Putin regime is smart it needs to make an ultimatum to Silicon Valley, either level playing field or they're getting blocked by a Great Firewall.

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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

16 Sep 20

The OG of Russian skinheads "Tesak" (Maxim Martsinkevich), who invented Nazi ironic trolling a decade ahead of /pol/ & The Daily Stormer, and specialized in street actions ranging from funny slapstick affairs to violent, illegal, & disgusting, was found dead in his prison cell.

Incidentally, Tesak got his first prison term thanks to a denunciation by none other Navalny himself, citing Article 282 (Russia's main "hate speech" law). This was back in 2007. This is funny because low-tier kremlinoid propaganda portrays Navalny as a nationalist to this day.

2020 has been a mortality-heavy year for Russian nationalism, in the broad sense.
* Eduard Limonov (NazBol) died in March. unz.com/akarlin/obitua…
* Konstantin Krylov (natsdem) died in May. unz.com/akarlin/obitua…
* Now, Tesak (14/88). I'll try to write a brief obit soon.

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ANATꙮLY KARLIN 🤔

@akarlin88

15 Sep 20

The one thing I'll say for the idea of "One Billion Americans" is that it's likely the only way that US can remain competitive with China in later 21C, as it translates its high human capital into per capita convergence & subsequent absolute predominance, given pop differential.

It is thus reasonable for civic nationalists who prioritize US global hegemony over ethnocultural particularism, such as Yglesias on the left and Lyman Stone on the right, to advocate the US triple its population this century, just as it did in the last.

Even from HBD perspective, a castizo-prole underclass managed by a white-Asian cognitive elite may remain quite competitive with China. Problem with this "vision" is that Latin America has dried up as a demographic reservoir. "The Wall" is an irrelevant response to a done deal.

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