My final take on tomorrow's Georgia runoffs: we have 50-50 odds of winning.
I was originally at 50-50 odds. Those odds began to drop when we allowed Trump's endgame antics to distract us from the runoffs. But now Trump has the Georgia GOP in disarray, so I'm back to 50-50 odds.
I was originally at 50-50 odds. Those odds began to drop when we allowed Trump's endgame antics to distract us from the runoffs. But now Trump has the Georgia GOP in disarray, so I'm back to 50-50 odds.
I do expect a close result. So it's possible we won't know the winner by the end of the night. If so, it'll be important to keep fighting for every vote to be counted. You know the drill
As always, panicking, fretting, and hand wringing are the opposite of being helpful.
As always, panicking, fretting, and hand wringing are the opposite of being helpful.
One thing to watch our for: despite their recent anti-Trump stances, Kemp and Raffensperger are corrupt pieces of shit who are trying to rig the Senate races for the GOP. In the coming days you'll be reminded of this. Kemp and Raffensperger are not your friends.
Keep in mind that Kemp criminally rigged his own election against Stacey Abrams in 2018. And Raffensperger has been doing everything he can to make it as hard to vote as possible. But they alone won't decide th runoffs races. Turnout will. So go push turnout tomorrow.
50-50 odds isn't pessimistic. Even though Biden won there, Georgia still has more red voters than blue voters. Still a long way to go in that state. But if I'd told you a year ago that we had 50-50 odds of flipping both Georgia Senate seats, you'd have called that optimistic :-)
Funny thing is, I said all along that Biden had a nearly 100% chance of winning, but that the odds of flipping the Senate were 50-50. Now the odds of flipping it are still 50-50. Sometimes the odds just don't change in the long run. It's almost like Asimov's pre-history.
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