This is relevant to the situation in the UK and elsewhere schools have been open with minimal infection control. Forget December, we knew *enough* in July to start preparing for the winter 1/n
You want schools open? Really? You have a few advantages, especially with younger kids who are less susceptible than older kids and adults. But that's not enough on its own. As in so many things here you see the advantage when you put multiple interventions together 2/n
You can improve ventilation. You can use masks. I know some of you don't *want* to wear masks but pick your battles for chrissakes. Test. Build confidence that you are doing everything to minimize transmission in schools and its consequences, instead of denying it happens 3/n
There are a lot of things that can be done to reduce risks. The above are only a few. Some are easier than others, but all rest upon controlling wider transmission *outside* schools. The more introductions, the more likely one of them causes an outbreak 4/n
If you get to a point where parents cannot send their child to school without being reasonably anxious that an undetected, uncontrolled outbreak there will introduce the virus to their household, that's a bad place to be. And that's the situation in too many places 5/n
If you are in the UK and you are angry, you should be. If you are elsewhere that greater infection control efforts have been made, you should be grateful. Wherever you are, we should all work to make things better than they are now, and learn from each other - inc mistakes 6/end

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More from @BillHanage

5 Jan
Everyone who thinks I just offer snark and the occasional bit of science. Let me please remind you how seriously I take this. People too close to me have died, too many of them. Too many have suffered the chronic nightmare of long covid
many more have treated the sick, and some have become infected. Some have been severely ill. Some still are
folks need to stop denying gravity and start seeing what is before their eyes. This virus is dangerous to *enough* that we need to take strong action to slow it down
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
This is an interesting article. While it’s talking about the poor (frankly bizarro) management in the U.K. and schools in particular it has wider relevance 1/n theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
The issue is that it has been clear since the spring that the long term management of the pandemic would require serious sustained action, and no rapid return to ‘normal’. However as we are all aware that has *not* been the messaging 2/n
The article lists reasonable suggestions for schools. These aren’t exhaustive. I’m not commenting here on how well they’d work or how feasible they’d be, but rather that *this* is the type of thinking that is required. And notably, people have been advocating for it for ages 3/n
Read 6 tweets
1 Jan
Closing thoughts on this hellish year. I am feeling really low right now, but here are some of the people I’ve valued over the last 12 months. This is in NO way an exhaustive list and is biased towards the contacts I made in 2020. It's a place to start thanking, not to finish 1/n
Writers - talking to @edyong209 , @zeynep and @apoorva_nyc has always been great. When it comes to the great @kakape has almost been therapy (honorable mention too for @yayitsrob who has done and written wonderful stuff) 2/n
I've been delighted to get to know folks like @Dr2NisreenAlwan @drjenndowd @HZiauddeen and @DrDomPimenta and the remarkable @dgurdasani1. Was honored to be a part of thelancet.com/journals/lance… 3/n
Read 12 tweets
30 Dec 20
A few thoughts on the pandemic and 'protecting healthcare', prompted by this heartfelt and urgent article about what it is like to actually work in healthcare during a pandemic
theguardian.com/commentisfree/… 1/n
firstly we should note that healthcare is either stretched or close to it in many places at the moment, and we have yet to see the effects of the Christmas holiday or (in most places) any impact of more transmissible variants 2/n
When we talk about ‘protecting healthcare’ what does that mean? Does it mean preserving ICU beds? If so how many ICU beds are enough to handle the regular requirements of the non-pandemic part of healthcare? 3/n
Read 8 tweets
23 Dec 20
Very interesting preprint on epidemiology of B.1.1.7 (or the 'Variant of concern' - VOC) in SE England. Have not fully digested but there are some important take homes 1/n cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
Some have argued B.1.1.7's sudden rise is a 'founder effect' reflecting the VOC getting into a more densely connected network of hosts, and a number of superspreading events. This seems unlikely to me because there were lots of more common lineages available to be amplified 2/n
the preprint agrees. First, here is the increase in the proportion of cases due to the VOC in the SE (pink) compared with the rest of England (these are detected btw through characteristics of the test result). The gray box is the 2nd national 'lockdown' (👈🏼hate that word) 3/n
Read 17 tweets
19 Dec 20
As might have been expected the UK is reintroducing more intense restrictions over the Christmas period. This may be tied to the 'new variant' common in the SE of the country, but should not obscure the fact that the relaxation in early December will have had an impact 1/n
There are several reasons to think this is an important variant, but notably it has increased extremely rapidly since emerging in mid sept (maybe a little earlier) 2/n
Unlike the earliest stages of the pandemic, this variant has been competing with existing and established lineages, and it is against that backdrop that the increase has occurred, strongly suggesting IMO it is more transmissible 3/n
Read 17 tweets

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