Closing thoughts on this hellish year. I am feeling really low right now, but here are some of the people I’ve valued over the last 12 months. This is in NO way an exhaustive list and is biased towards the contacts I made in 2020. It's a place to start thanking, not to finish 1/n
Writers - talking to @edyong209 , @zeynep and @apoorva_nyc has always been great. When it comes to the great @kakape has almost been therapy (honorable mention too for @yayitsrob who has done and written wonderful stuff) 2/n
Then there are those who are not (or did not start out) ID pros but have been great, like @adamhamdy@overdressjen or @ImpactMovie or the wonderful person who gifted me the phrase #OptimismSpa and who I can't find now. Thank you. I hope we get more chances to use it 6/n
And it wouldn't be a thank you without a shoutout to the likes of @angie_rasmussen@florian_krammer or @LubanLab who I turn to when it gets more virological or vacciney than I can handle on my own 7/n
to add to the 👆🏼 - @MackayIM who transformed my understanding of much in the early stages, but importantly introduced me to the work of @EIDGeek who has been a touchstone of good sense and decency throughout 8/n
I want also to mention people like @javid_lab@apsmunro or @sdbaral (among others!) I might not necessarily always agree with, but who I learn from. That’s part of the point of getting better at science, probably the most important bit 9/n
And friends like @rezendi, @baym or @CT_Bergstrom. I am truly lucky to know people like you. You do find out a lot about people in a pandemic... 10/n
And last but VERY much not least - the redoubtable @alanmcn1. I am so proud to know you. And may all your two bit trolls quit bothering you, detach themselves and come my way - my sarcasm engines need feeding 11/n
In closing: as I type we are learning more about a new viral variant, with unclear but potentially worrying properties, that has already spread to who knows where - because most places are not looking for it.
Isn't this where we came in?
12/end
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A few thoughts on the pandemic and 'protecting healthcare', prompted by this heartfelt and urgent article about what it is like to actually work in healthcare during a pandemic theguardian.com/commentisfree/… 1/n
firstly we should note that healthcare is either stretched or close to it in many places at the moment, and we have yet to see the effects of the Christmas holiday or (in most places) any impact of more transmissible variants 2/n
When we talk about ‘protecting healthcare’ what does that mean? Does it mean preserving ICU beds? If so how many ICU beds are enough to handle the regular requirements of the non-pandemic part of healthcare? 3/n
Very interesting preprint on epidemiology of B.1.1.7 (or the 'Variant of concern' - VOC) in SE England. Have not fully digested but there are some important take homes 1/n cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
Some have argued B.1.1.7's sudden rise is a 'founder effect' reflecting the VOC getting into a more densely connected network of hosts, and a number of superspreading events. This seems unlikely to me because there were lots of more common lineages available to be amplified 2/n
the preprint agrees. First, here is the increase in the proportion of cases due to the VOC in the SE (pink) compared with the rest of England (these are detected btw through characteristics of the test result). The gray box is the 2nd national 'lockdown' (👈🏼hate that word) 3/n
As might have been expected the UK is reintroducing more intense restrictions over the Christmas period. This may be tied to the 'new variant' common in the SE of the country, but should not obscure the fact that the relaxation in early December will have had an impact 1/n
There are several reasons to think this is an important variant, but notably it has increased extremely rapidly since emerging in mid sept (maybe a little earlier)
Unlike the earliest stages of the pandemic, this variant has been competing with existing and established lineages, and it is against that backdrop that the increase has occurred, strongly suggesting IMO it is more transmissible 3/n
I've been getting questions from friends about what to do if their child gets sent from home to quarantine, after a case is identified in their class or 'bubble' (or whatever is the local term) 1/n
First point, be pleased that the exposure was detected. Imagine if it had not been. The information is power which helps you and others avoid infection, that is what the quarantine is for 2/n
the alternative (not testing) means undetected transmission in schools could introduce the virus to many households. Younger children *are* less likely to become infected and suffer severe illness, but they can transmit 3/n
Will not be time for many of these and please understand may well be distracted so will miss put too many but given the thanksgiving holiday would like to should out to those like @ImpactMovie who have been admirable friends for months. Happy thanksgiving to you and yours!
I would add @SFDukie happy thanksgiving to you and yours - hopefully in a non generation mixing setting
Or the extraordinary @EIDGeek - this had been a bad year. Getting to know you better has been one of the better parts. Look forward to meeting in person, one day
First this is good news in that it shows yet more evidence efficacy can be achieved, and in a vaccine setup we understand better than mRNA vaccines - no disrespect to any platform, but having more weapons in our arsenal is always going to be better
But what’s bad is the relentless media focus on the “up to 90% efficacy” which makes me irritable. This was a result from a mistake in the vaccine trial regarding dosage. Vaccine trials are not the sort of places you want to make mistakes