Back in 2017 Sep, I stashed away some money in BTC on a particular crypto platform.

I vowed to never withdraw it, or look at it for 10 years (Taking a leaf out of @dmuthuk's playbook)

It will either be the best investment of my life or turn out a dud.

Let's see.
Initially, I had spread out my investment across BTC and few altcoins including Ethereum.

Within a few months, once bitcoin went to 20k and then crashed to 4-5k range, I cashed out all altcoins and put everything into bitcoin.
Now it may seem like it was a good move investment wise.

But no, this is pure DUMB LUCK.

There was no investment thesis.

I didn't (and still don't fully) understand Bitcoin/Blockchain.

For those who want to understand, their whitepaper + code is the place to start.
And don't be lured in by the rising prices or @APompliano's consistent hype and buy BTC.

Buy only if you can understand.

Even when I bought at $4.5k range, it was a high-risk investment.

The risk is now exponentially higher.

Before you invest, study it thoroughly.

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More from @theBuoyantMan

8 Jan
One of the systems I have been forward testing would have gone from 3 lakhs on September 1st 2020 to 13.4 lakhs by December end.

Needless to say, I was shocked and surprised.

Time for a thread 👇 Image
I have been forward testing a system on BankNifty for last four months.

I always forward test with 1 lot or the smallest size possible.

This is to make up for lack of clean data in the backtesting process.
I wanted to see what would have happened if I'd aggressively compounded the system.

I have been testing this with 2xATM option buying (for every 1x futures).

So, I took the results of the one lot test (after commissions and everything else is deducted) and applied it.
Read 12 tweets
1 Jan
Are you planning on handing over your money to an algo trading platform?

Maybe you want to subscribe to a strategy or two and make insane returns.

Here's why you shouldn't do it, and save your money instead.
1/ Maybe you want to have a strategy development company deploy such algorithms on your account with respective brokers.

Or the service itself has strategies that you just subscribe to and authorize your trading account with, and it will automatically trade your money.
2/ When it comes to @Tradetron1 there are a slew of issues.

Let's keep aside the lack of transparency and the total regulatory non-compliance for a moment.

First off, with most of the strategies, the backtests are BOGUS.
Read 37 tweets
30 Dec 20
Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?

That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.

I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.

Thread below 👇👇
1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.

If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.

This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.
2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.

This is classic hot-hand fallacy.

Each ball's outcome is independent.

The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).
Read 21 tweets
22 Dec 20
Twitter has been a positive influence this year for me.

Can't point one single person to have influenced me the most. But put these people in combination, and they all influenced me collectively to elevate my life to the next level.

The list below 👇
Started with @naval @balajis - wanted to eventually get to where these two are in life. The kind of processes they have set up in life to be learning machines is unparalleled.

All their podcast episodes, and of course @Naval's threads influenced a lot.
Came across @david_perell and @fortelabs. Influenced by them, went into the productivity and note-taking rabbit hole. Discovered SO MANY things that as an Indian you're oblivious to, if you don't expose yourself to what's out there in the world.
Read 40 tweets
21 Dec 20
NSE sells tick-by-tick data for each segment at around 1.5-2 lakhs per year for commercial use (hearsay only, need to confirm).

Data vendors like truedata, GDF, etc., sell the 1sec data at 50-60k per segment, and 1m data at 20k per segment.
They only need 10 customers to breakeven per segment of data. Thereafter, everything they make is profit.

Live data vending seems like a complicated setup (leased line, nse direct line, etc). But becoming a vendor to NSE for historical data sounds like an attractive business.
So, becoming a vendor for NSE historical data (and afterwards adding few more exchanges) sounds like a profitable business.

What is the catch?
Read 8 tweets
20 Dec 20
12 more hours till registrations close.
10 hours to go.
6 hours to go.
Read 4 tweets

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