Jan 06, 2021 | 08:00 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Election Bottom Line: Active Stock Picking Will Now Likely (and Perhaps, Materially), Outperform Passive Investing
* I now expect an acceleration in the pivot from growth to value
* As reflected by recent voting results, Americans are more in the middle of the road than at the extremes
In a market warning in Monday's opening missive I wrote:
"The Georgia Senatorial contests are tightening up as measured by the polls and betting parlors."
-
Kass Diary, The New Year Begins Where the Old Year Ended
What is clear to me from November's and last night's voting results is that our country's voters have repudiated the extremes of both the Democratic far left and Republican far right.
Should the Democrats win both
Senate seats in Georgia, which now seems probable -- I would expect a continuation and an acceleration into a new leg higher in the pivot from growth to value.
Here is the outcome I have expected for 2021 and how I am playing it. Last night's elections provide an exclamation
* Buy value (banks, autos, telecomm (e.g., ($VZ) , etc.)
* Buy precious metals ($SLV) , ($GLD)
* Short bonds ($TLT)
I remain large short in net exposure, see here - an
outside of consensus view. Indeed I was adding to my Index shorts yesterday, and moved back to very large-sized. The growthy Nasdaq ($QQQ) seems very vulnerable.
As you are all aware, I have sold out the entirety of my growthy names (e.g., Amazon ($AMZN) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) )
Now up on @realmoney I played the long side from March but most will now disagree with my negative stance. Group Stink is on a convoy now. But I make a comprehensive case, imho)...
Jan 08, 2021 | 07:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
My Message Is Simple: Sell Stocks Now
* I find a
record low number of stocks that meet my standards for purchase today
* Book mark this missive!
"You're betraying your whole life if you don't say what you think - and you don't say it honestly and bluntly."
- Charles Krauthammer
Peggy Noonan, WSJ:
"Again, on the president: There have been leaders before who, facing imminent downfall, decide to tear everything down with them. They want to go out surrounded by flames. Hitler, at the end, wanted to blow up Germany, its buildings and bridges. His people
had let him down. Now he hated them. They must suffer.
I have resisted Nazi comparisons for five years, for the most part easily. But that is like what is happening here, the same kind of spirit, as the president departs, as he angrily channel-surfs in his bunker.
He is a bad man and not a stable one and he is dangerous. America is not safe in his hands.
@realmoney
Dealing With, Interpreting and Understanding The Market Consequences of A Dark Day in History
* As I predicted thirteen months, the streets have grown violent in the aftermath of the Election
* But, markets have no conscience and are increasingly dispassionate
* Structural changes - specifically the proliferation of "passive investing" - have produced an equity market without "feelings" and emotion
* This has led to the least informed holders of stocks in history
* And as I predicted, several social media platforms have declared the
President unfit to post
* Finally, as I also expected and predicted in my "15 Surprises for 2021," the pivot from growth to value is accelerating
* Short bonds, long banks... still
* Fire or Ice? No, as disasters have a way of not happening
* But there may be danger at our door
In the spring of 1940 British forces in Norway were overwhelmed by the Nazis. On May 7 Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain faced a critical motion by the Labor opposition in the House of Commons. His Conservatives had a big majority. But
a respected Conservative backbencher, Leopold Amery, rose and addressed to Chamberlain the words that Cromwell had said to the Long Parliament 300 years before:
''You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. In the name of God, go!''
@realDonaldTrump For five years, Republicans let him degrade political culture by normalizing his behavior. For five years, they let him wage war on democratic norms and institutions. For five years, they treated his nonstop mendacity as a quirk of character, not a
disqualification for office. For five years, they treated his rallies as carnivals of democracy, not as training grounds for mob rule.
For five years, they thought this was costless. On Wednesday — forgive the cliché, but it’s apt here — their chickens came home to roost.
Every decent society depends for its survival on its ability to be shocked — and stay shocked — by genuinely shocking behavior. Donald Trump’s entire presidency has been an assault on that idea.
There is only one prescription for it now. Impeach the president and remove him
@realmoney
Jan 05, 2021 | 09:00 AM EST DOUG KASS
Long Verizon
* I am adding $VZ to my Best Ideas List (long)
* VZ is a conservative investment in a generally overvalued stock market
I have been doing plenty of research on Verizon (VZ) over the last several weeks and I initiated
a long investment position in VZ yesterday.
I am also adding to the stock to my Best Ideas List.
I will have a lengthier analysis on the company in the next week or so.
To summarize the stock's attributes:
* Safe yield
* Reasonable valuation at under 7x EBITDA and 36%
market PE discount
* Well positioned for the 5G transition
* Best wireless business
* Differentiated wireless offerings through content partnerships (Disney+ (DIS) , Discovery+ (DISCA) , etc.), public cloud (Amazon (AMZN) ) and enterprise (Microsoft (MSFT) )