Thread by @mateosfo

Immediate tension on climate policy:

America's largest source of climate pollution is cars, and it's set to worsen for ~ a decade as carmakers wind down Giant Truck SUV-palooza.

Carmakers have set up situation where it's already too late to address car pollution w/ EVs alone.

So, a significant & growing share of the things we need to do to solve cars for climate requires less driving: Literally, we have to reduce the absolute number of miles people drive, regardless of drivetrain.

AND every car sold has to be an EV, ASAP. But ASAP is, like 2035.

The deep challenge in transport decarbonization: The car industry is like the defense industry. It has established manufacturing centers in states that look like a map of states we all hate to watch for electoral college: Ohio. Michigan. Pennsylvania. North Carolina. Wisconsin.

This isn't a problem because of the *politics* of those states. It's a problem because of *what gets manufactured* in those factories:

Primarily, parts and components for gasoline-powered vehicles.

You don't need any of those parts in an EV.

In fact, one of the most amazing things about EVs is how simple they are & cheap to maintain: No oil changes, no fuel injectors, no oxygen sensors or exhaust manifolds or valves or fuel filters or camshafts or transmissions or gear boxes.

Just a motor, batteries, brakes, seats.

But: You just wiped out ~80% of car industry supply chain. None of those parts are needed anymore.

& don't even THINK about what happens to dealerships: Most dealer profits come from repairing gasoline cars. EVs need ~ no maintenance.

Ever seen political power of car salesmen?

The kicker: Because of how evil car industry has been past ~ 3 decades of truck/SUV sales, we don't need enough EVs to justify transitioning all that gasoline car part manufacturing capacity to EVs. We need transit, walkable communities, bike lanes, and a whole lot less driving.

The car industry essentially backed itself into a climate corner:

Its self-destructive, selfish, and monstrous focus on selling products that make the problem worse (trucks and SUVS) have cut down the ceiling on potential demand for products that solve the problem (EVs).

Really isn't a great pathway for car industry on climate. There is either a lot of pain in its future, or, we punt on climate.

Climate policy needs to be super deliberate about this; car industry has shown nothing but bad faith for decades, but workers shouldn't bear the brunt.

I'd like to see liquidation of much of the industry, with giant severance packages for workers - think, a couple years' worth of salary, early retirement, and grants for folks who want to start in new directions.

But it's wildly unrealistic to think we can "just transition" the car industry into 100% employment making EVs. They fucked that possibility up years ago; it's too late.

But hell yeah, you guys want to make buses and trains and e-bikes, knock yourselves out, we need a ton.

h/t/ to @KateAronoff for getting the juices flowing this morning

https://twitter.com/KateAronoff/status/1346835569339478016

... and of course if you don't trust my conclusions/assumptions, everything that might be wrong is @CostaSamaras's fault